Enhancing the Efficiency of Enterprise Shutdowns for Environmental Protection:An Agent-Based Modeling Approach with High Spatial–Temporal Resolution Data  

作　　者：Qi Zhou Shen Qu Miaomiao Liu Jianxun Yang Jia Zhou Yunlei She Zhouyi Liu Jun Bi 

机构地区：[1]School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China [2]Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse,School of the Environment,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China [4]The Center of Enterprise Green Governance,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China [5]State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China

出　　处：《Engineering》2024年第11期295-307,共13页工程（英文）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52200228 and 72022004);the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2022M721817);the National Key Scientific Research Project(2021YFC3200200).

摘　　要：Top-down environmental policies aim to mitigate environmental risks but inevitably lead to economic losses due to the market entry or exit of enterprises.This study developed a universal dynamic agent-based supply chain model to achieve tradeoffs between environmental risk reduction and economic sus-tainability.The model was used to conduct high-resolution daily simulations of the dynamic shifts in enterprise operations and their cascading effects on supply chain networks.It includes production,con-sumption,and transportation agents,attributing economic features to supply chain components and cap-turing their interactions.It also accounts for adaptive responses to daily external shocks and replicates realistic firm behaviors.By coupling high spatial-temporal resolution firm-level data from 18916 chemical enterprises,this study investigates the economic and environmental impacts of an environmen-tal policy resulting in the closure of 1800 chemical enterprises over three years.The results revealed a significant economic loss of 25.8 billion USD,ranging from 23.8 billion to 31.8 billion USD.Notably,over 80%of this loss was attributed to supply chain propagation.Counterfactual analyses indicated that imple-menting a staggered shutdown strategy prevented 18.8%of supply chain losses,highlighting the impor-tance of a gradual policy implementation to prevent abrupt supply chain disruptions.Furthermore,the study highlights the effectiveness of a multi-objective policy design in reducing economic losses(about 29%)and environmental risks(about 40%),substantially enhancing the efficiency of the environmental policy.The high-resolution simulations provide valuable insights for policy designers to formulate strategies with staggered implementation and multiple objectives to mitigate supply chain losses and environmental risks and ensure a sustainable future.

关 键 词：Agent-based model Supply chain network Economic sustainability Environmental policy 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F273[经济管理—企业管理] F426.7[经济管理—国民经济]