纳税规范能改善资本市场信息环境吗——基于分析师盈余预测的证据  

Can Tax Norm Improve the Information Environment of Capital Market?Evidence from Analysts’Earnings Forecasts

作　　者：梁上坤[1] 李泳彤 Liang Shangkun;Li Yongtong(School of Accountancy,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学会计学院

出　　处：《南开管理评论》2024年第9期161-172,共12页Nankai Business Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72272164、71872196);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD060)资助。

摘　　要：分析师盈余预测质量是资本市场信息传递效率的重要组成部分,而公共信息是分析师获取信息的重要来源。基于国家税务总局开展的纳税信用评级活动,本文使用2015-2023年沪深A股上市公司的分析师盈余预测数据,实证考察了纳税规范(获评纳税信用A级)对分析师盈余预测质量的影响。研究发现:(1)纳税规范显著提高了盈余预测准确度,降低了盈余预测乐观度,且该结果在考虑企业规模差异与分析师能力差异后仍然成立;(2)区分企业特征以及行业特征,纳税规范对分析师盈余预测质量的提升作用在业务复杂度较高、行业集中度较低时更为显著;(3)区分时间特征,纳税规范在披露后期的信息含量更高;(4)对后果的进一步探索发现,纳税规范提高了会计信息质量,降低了股票错误定价程度。本文从公共介入视角丰富了分析师盈余预测影响因素的研究,为理解纳税信用评级制度的信息效应和治理效应提供了理论依据,也对提高资本市场信息效率具有一定的现实启示。As an important external factor affecting the development of enterprises,tax management,such as optimizing the business envi-ronment in various aspects,has become the focus of government work.Since more than 90%of China’s tax revenue comes from enterprises,it is required to optimize the reward and punishment mechanism in tax management.It is necessary to promote the tax norms of enterprises,en-sure national tax revenue,and improve the performance of enterprises,especially honest enterprises,promote the sustainable development of enterprises,and ultimately achieve the“win-win”between the govern-ment and enterprises.In July 2014,the State Administration of Taxation issued the measures for the administration of tax credit(Trial),which di-vided the tax credit rating of enterprises into five levels:A,B,M,C and D,and implemented hierarchical management and dynamic adjustment.The quality of analysts’earnings forecasts is an important component of information transmission efficiency in capital markets,with public information being a significant source for analysts.As the publicly dis-closed data of tax collection and administration units,tax credit rating can directly reflect the level of tax norms of enterprises.This prompts us to consider whether tax norms have an impact on analysts’earnings forecasting behavior.The answer to this question not only helps to deeply understand the practical impact of tax norms,but also expand the research results of analysts’earnings forecast.Based on the tax credit rating activities carried out by the State Taxation Administration,this paper examines the impact of tax norm(receiving an A-level tax credit rating)on the quality of analysts’earnings fore-casts using analyst earnings forecast data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2023.The results show that:(1)Tax norm significantly improves the accuracy of earnings forecasts and reduces the optimism of earnings forecasts.The above results still hold after considering the differences in company siz

关 键 词：纳税规范 盈余预测 信息效应 治理效应 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济] F812.42