基于Hartman模型的林业碳汇价值评估研究  

Assessment of forestry carbon sink values based on Hartman model

作　　者：冯丽丽 杜云菲 来志明 王合友 FENG Lili;DU Yunfei;LAI Zhiming;WANG Heyou(Institute of Economics,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050030;School of Management,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050030)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学经济研究所,石家庄050030 [2]河北地质大学管理学院,石家庄050030

出　　处：《林业经济》2024年第8期45-58,共14页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“环境规制与企业社会责任履行耦合机制及地区异质性研究”(18BGL185);河北省高校人文社会科学重大攻关课题“双碳目标下数字经济驱动河北省企业绿色发展的机制与路径研究”(ZD202418);河北地质大学科技创新团队“双碳目标下绿色资本有效配置与经济高质量发展研究”(KJCXTD-2022-01);河北省会计学会科研项目“基于Hartman模型的林业碳汇价值评估研究”。

摘　　要：面对全球气候变化的严峻挑战,林业碳汇项目作为应对策略的重要组成部分,其经济价值评估对于推动项目可持续发展及实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。文章基于Hartman模型,采用二叉树实物期权法,对河北省三北防护林碳汇造林项目进行价值评估,并探讨不确定性因素对项目价值的影响。研究结果表明:(1)河北省三北防护林项目期权的估值达到9442元/hm2,整体价值约为4.2亿元,证明碳汇收益对提升项目评估价值具有重要影响。(2)碳汇价格波动率从0.20增至0.38时,项目价值增加超17%,正向影响显著;同时,木材价格与碳汇价格提升也对项目价值具有正向促进作用;而无风险利率从3.5%升至6.5%,项目价值从7.37亿元降至3.11亿元,表明无风险利率上升则抑制其增长。这不仅为林业碳汇项目评估提供了新思路,也为优化项目设计、吸引投资及促进区域经济与生态协调发展提供了重要参考。文章创新性地结合Hartman模型与二叉树实物期权法,全面评估林业碳汇经济价值,深化市场不确定性考量,为科学评估提供新路径。文章提出政府应增强政策激励、提升市场活跃度、完善碳汇确权与交易机制,并加强公众教育与意识提升等政策启示。In the face of the pressing challenges posed by global climate change,forestry carbon sink projects,as a crucial component of the mitigation strategy,have significant importance in their economic valuation for promoting sustainable project development and achieving the"dual carbon"targets.Based on the Hartman model,this paper employed the binomial tree real option method to conduct a value assessment of the carbon sink afforestation project in the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest in Hebei Province,and explored the impact of uncertainty factors on the project value.The research findings indicated that:(1)The valuation of options for the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Project in Hebei Province amounted to 9442 yuan/hm2,with an overall value of approximately 420 million yuan,demonstrating the crucial role of carbon sink revenue in enhancing project valuation.(2)When the volatility rate of carbon prices increased from 0.20 to 0.38,the project value increased by over 17%,indicating a significant positive impact.Simultaneously,the increase in timber prices and carbon sink prices also positively promoted the project value.However,when the risk-free interest rate rose from 3.5%to 6.5%,the project value decreased from 737 million yuan to 311 million yuan,indicating that an increase in the risk-free interest rate inhibited its growth.This not only provided novel insights into the valuation of forestry carbon sink projects,but also offered crucial references for optimizing project design,attracting investments and fostering harmonious regional economic and ecological development.This paper innovatively combined the Hartman model with the binomial tree real option method,comprehensively evaluated the economic value of forestry carbon sink,deepened the consideration of market uncertainty,and provided a novel pathway for scientific assessment.The paper put forward policy implications for governments to enhance policy incentives,boost market activity,refine carbon sink rights confirmation and trading mechanisms,and strengthen pub

关 键 词：林业碳汇项目 期权价值 二叉树实物期权法 Hartman模型 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F326.27[经济管理—产业经济]