人口老龄化对企业全球生产链嵌入位置的影响  

Impact of Population Aging on the Embedding Position of Enterprises in the Global Production Chain

作　　者：杨晓云 屠兴勇[2] YANG Xiao-yun;TU Xing-yong(College of Finance and Economics,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404020,China;school of Management,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院财经学院,重庆404020 [2]兰州大学管理学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《西部论坛》2024年第6期92-109,共18页West Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BJY187)。

摘　　要：虽然人口老龄化会导致劳动力成本增加,不利于企业出口规模增长,但其能够促使企业在要素投入环节以资本替代劳动、在要素利用环节通过技术进步提高劳动生产率,从而有利于企业的全球生产链地位提升。以2000—2014年中国工业企业为样本,采用出口上游度刻画企业全球生产链嵌入位置,分析发现:人口老龄化促进了企业全球生产链嵌入位置提升,并对企业的资本劳动比、发明专利申请数和工业机器人应用具有正向影响,表明人口老龄化可以通过要素替代效应和技术进步效应来提升企业全球生产链嵌入位置,人口老龄化对劳动密集型行业、年龄贬值型和体能型技能依赖度较高行业、外部融资依赖度较高行业企业全球生产链嵌入位置的提升作用更大,核心程度较高产品的全球生产链嵌入位置较高,人口老龄化对核心程度较高产品全球生产链嵌入位置的提升作用也较大,企业全球生产链嵌入位置提升具有内需扩张效应,能够部分抵消人口老龄化引发的外需下降。因此,应正确认识人口老龄化带来的“危”与“机”,积极作为,通过优化要素投入结构和加快技术进步来提升企业的全球生产链地位。Improving the position of Chinese enterprises in the global production chain is not only an inevitable requirement for enhancing China’s participation in the labor division of the global value chain and its real trade gains but also a necessary part of promoting the process of new industrialization and accelerating the construction of a manufacturing power.With the deepening of China’s population aging,the slowdown of foreign trade growth has gradually become the norm.Reversing the low-end embedding mode of Chinese enterprises in the global production chain and improving real trade gains have become the main path to maintaining the momentum of export support for economic growth.Exploring the path of China’s trade power under the background of population aging is an urgent task.However,existing literature has not yet directly explored the relationship between population aging and the global production chain of Chinese enterprises.This paper is based on the World Input Output Database(WIOD),China Industrial Enterprise Database,China Customs Database,and regional population data.According to the practices of Chor,et al.(2014)and Chen Xu,et al.(2022),this study uses the export upstream index to measure the global production chain embedding position of Chinese enterprises and examines how regional population aging affects the global production chain embedding position of micro-enterprises.Empirical studies show that population aging can significantly enhance the global production chain embedding position of Chinese enterprises.Mechanism tests verify that population aging promotes a capital-biased factor input structure,stimulates endogenous R&D innovation and exogenous technology application,and promotes technological progress in enterprises.Further researches find that population aging optimizes resource reallocation within enterprises,and there is a resource reallocation pattern of“the stronger the stronger”among different export products;the population aging is also conducive to the expansion of domestic

关 键 词：人口老龄化 全球生产链地位 要素替代效应 技术进步效应 资本深化 出口上游度 

分 类 号：F114.1[经济管理—国际贸易] F241.21[经济管理—世界经济]