碳中和目标下四川省林业生态工程对植被碳汇的影响研究  

Impacts of Forestry Ecological Projects on Vegetation Carbon Sequestration in Sichuan toward Carbon Neutrality

作　　者：邓元杰 罗洎 张晓龙 易小波 杨平 李兰[4] 侯孟阳 DENG Yuanjie;LUO Ji;ZHANG Xiaolong;YI Xiaobo;YANG Ping;LI Lan;HOU Mengyang(School of Economics,Sichuan University of Science and Engineering,Zigong,Sichuan 643000,China;Research Center of Agricultural Economy,Sichuan University of Science and Engineering,Zigong,Sichuan 643000,China;Institute of Western China Economic Research,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,Sichuan 611130,China;Yibin Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Yibin,Sichuan 644000,China;School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding,Hebei 071002,China)

机构地区：[1]四川轻化工大学经济学院,四川自贡643000 [2]四川轻化工大学经济学院农业经济研究中心,四川自贡643000 [3]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究院,四川成都611130 [4]宜宾市农业科学院,四川宜宾644000 [5]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071002

出　　处：《环境监测管理与技术》2024年第6期23-28,共6页The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72303055);四川省农村社区治理研究中心基金资助项目(SQZL2023C03);成渝地区双城经济圈川南发展研究院基金资助项目(CYQCNY20234);自贡市哲学社会科学重点研究基地产业转型与创新研究中心2023年度重点基金资助项目(CZ23B02)。

摘　　要：基于遥感、气象和统计年鉴数据,对四川省2002—2018年间县域的林业生态工程建设和植被碳汇的时空变化进行分析,采用多重高维固定效应模型探究林业生态工程对植被碳汇的影响。结果表明:四川省植被碳汇在时间上呈波动上升趋势,由1 737.56 g/(m^(2)·a)增至1 836.89 g/(m^(2)·a),年均增速达0.34%;在空间分布上,植被碳汇高值集中在川西南山地地区,低值集中在川西北高原地区;在趋势变化上,全省县域的植被碳汇整体呈增长趋势。四川盆地和川西南地区是林业生态工程实施重点地区,累计造林面积占比分别为61.44%和26.02%。四川省林业生态工程能显著促进植被碳汇的增加,并存在时滞效应。此外,人均GDP、年降水量、年均气温对植被碳汇具有显著正向影响,而人口密度则具有显著负向影响。Based on remote sensing,meteorological and statistical yearbook data,the spatiotemporal changes of forestry ecological projects(FEPs)and vegetation carbon sequestration(VCS)in counties in Sichuan from^(2)002 to 2018 were analyzed,and the impacts of forestry ecological projects on vegetation carbon sequestration were investigated by multiple high-dimensional fixed effects model.Results indicated that the vegetation carbon sequestration in Sichuan had a fluctuating upward trend with time,increasing from 1737.56 g/(m^(2)·a)to 1836.89 g/(m^(2)·a),with an annual average growth rate of 0.34%.In terms of spatial distribution,high values of carbon sequestration were concentrated in the mountainous of southwestern Sichuan,while low values were in the northwest plateau of Sichuan.The vegetation carbon sequestration in counties of the whole province showed an increasing trend.Sichuan Basin and southwest Sichuan were key areas for the implementation of FEPs,where the cumulative afforestation area accounted for 61.44%and 26.02%,respectively.FEPs in Sichuan significantly promoted the increase of vegetation carbon sequestration,and there was a time-lag effect.Additionally,per capita GDP,annual rainfall and annual mean temperature had significant positive effects on vegetation carbon sequestration,while population density had significant negative effects.

关 键 词：碳中和目标 林业生态工程 植被碳汇 多重高维固定效应模型 四川省 

分 类 号：X171.4[环境科学与工程—环境科学]