基于CA-Markov模型预测玛曲县土地利用时空变化  

Prediction of the Spatial and Temporal Changes in Land Use in Maqu County Based on the CA-Markov Model

作　　者：肖云飞 徐海平 陈文业 谈嫣蓉 王润娟 Xiao Yunfei;Xu Haiping;Chen Wenye;Tan Yanrong;Wang Runjuan(Gansu Academy of Forestry Sciences,Lanzhou 730020,China;Gansu Dunhuang West Lake Wetland Ecosystem National Positioning Observation and Research Station,Dunhuang 736200,China;Gannan Prefecture Forest Seedling Management Station of Gansu Province,Hezuo 747000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省林业科学研究院,兰州730020 [2]甘肃敦煌西湖湿地生态系统国家定位观测研究站,敦煌736200 [3]甘肃省甘南州林木种苗管理站,合作747000

出　　处：《青海科技》2024年第5期166-173,共8页Qinghai Science and Technology

基　　金：2023年陇原青年创新创业人才(个人)项目“黄河首区—玛曲县高寒沙化草地时空分特征及异质性分析”;国家自然科学基金项目“黄河上游玛曲高寒区沙漠化形成与演化过程研究”(32360429)。

摘　　要：以甘肃省玛曲县为研究区,基于玛曲县2000—2020年土地利用类型数据,采用土地利用转移矩阵分析过去20年土地利用类型的变化情况,并采用元胞自动机-马尔可夫(CA-Markov)模型对玛曲县2030年的土地利用类型数据进行模拟预测。结果表明:玛曲县土地利用类型主要是草地、灌丛、水体,建成区的面积较小,2000—2010年土地利用类型变化主要在东南部,湿地的面积变大且较为整齐,其他类型面积变化比较零碎;2010—2020年土地利用类型变化主要在东南部,主要是草地和湿地的变化。利用CA-Markov模型模拟预测2030年玛曲县土地利用变化主要是草地的变化,Kappa系数为0.82,该研究可为玛曲县未来可持续发展规划提供参考依据。Taking Maqu County of Gansu Province as the study area,and based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Maqu County,a land use transition matrix was employed to analyze the changes in land use types over the past two decades,and the cellular automaton-Markov(CA-Markov)model was used to simulate and forecast land use changes in Maqu County by 2030.The results showed that the main types of land use in Maqu County were grasslands,shrubs,and water bodies,with a relatively small built-up area.From 2000 to 2010,the changes in land use types were primarily in the southeast,where the area of wetlands became larger and more uniform.The changes in the area of other types were relatively fragmented.The main changes in land use types from 2010 to 2020 were also in the southeast,mainly involving grasslands and wetlands.The CA-Markov model was used to simulate and predict the land use change in Maqu County by 2030,focusing mainly on grassland changes,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.82.This study can provide reference for the future sustainable development planning of Maqu County.

关 键 词：玛曲县 CA-Markov模型 土地利用类型 模型预测 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]