货币政策对消费市场的影响研究——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型  

Study on the Impact of Monetary Policy on Consumer Market——Empirical Study Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

作　　者：韩琳 Han Lin(Shenyang University of Technology,Shenyang,Liaoning 110870)

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学,辽宁沈阳110870

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第24期126-130,共5页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：为了促进经济增长,稳定通货膨胀,增加就业以及平衡国际收支,货币政策已被世界上许多国家和地区广泛采用。本文采用理论结合实证分析的方法,对国内外主要理论与实证研究进行了总结,阐述了货币政策对宏观经济产生的相关影响,通过使用银行间七天同业拆借利率和中国消费者总指数来代表消费市场的走势,探究货币政策与消费市场之间的关系,研究其中的关联与内在问题。本文建立向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR),分析了货币供应量、七天Shibor和中国消费价格指数三者间的动态时变性。研究发现,货币供给增发会对银行间同业拆借利率和中国消费者总指数造成一定的影响和冲击,进而导致消费市场产生变化。基于此,我们应发挥货币政策的功效,进一步深化利率市场化改革,畅通货币政策传导路径,使其对消费市场产生正面积极的影响。To promote economic growth,stabilize inflation,increase employment,and balance international payments,monetary policy has been widely adopted by many countries and regions around the world.This paper uses a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis to summarize key domestic and international theories and empirical studies,illustrating the relevant impacts of monetary policy on the macroeconomy.By using the interbank seven-day repo rate and the China Consumer Price Index(CPI)to represent the trends in the consumer market,the paper explores the relationship between monetary policy and the consumer market,examining the connections and underlying issues involved.This article establishes a Time-Varying Parameter Stochastic Volatility Vector Autoregressive(TVP-SV-VAR)model to analyze the dynamic time-varying nature among money supply,7-day Shibor,and the Chinese Consumer Price Index.The research reveals that an increase in money supply issuance affects the interbank repo rate and the Chinese Consumer Price Index,subsequently impacting the consumer market.Based on these findings,it is crucial to leverage the effectiveness of monetary policy,further deepen interest rate marketization reforms,streamline the transmission channels of monetary policy,and ensure its positive impact on the consumer market.

关 键 词：货币政策 货币供应量增长率 银行间同业拆借利率 消费市场 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F820.3[经济管理—财政学]