基于决策树模型的岩溶隧道涌水可能性快速判断——以桂河高速泗顶特长隧道为例  

Rapid assessment of water and mud inrush likelihood in karst tunnels based on decision tree model:A case in Siding tunnel of Guihe expressway

作　　者：郭宝德 张毅[2] 王新文 陈志高 董志明 蒙彦[5] GUO Baode;ZHANG Yi;WANG Xinwen;CHEN Zhigao;DONG Zhiming;MENG Yan(Huabang Construction Investment Group Co.,LTD,Lanzhou,Gansu 730199,China;China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan 610031,China;Guilin Hydrological Engineering Geological Survey Institute Co.,Ltd.of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Guilin,Guangxi 541002,China;CHELBI Engineering Consultants Incorporation,Beijing 100029,China;Key Laboratory of Karst Dynamics,MNR&GZAR/Innovation Center of Karst Collapse Prevention,CGS/Institute of Karst Geology,CAGS,Guilin,Guangxi 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]华邦建投集团股份有限公司,甘肃兰州730199 [2]中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司,四川成都610031 [3]广西壮族自治区桂林水文工程地质勘察院有限公司,广西桂林541002 [4]华杰工程咨询有限公司,北京100029 [5]自然资源部、广西岩溶动力学重点实验室/中国地质调查局岩溶塌陷防治技术创新中心/中国地质科学院岩溶地质研究所,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《中国岩溶》2024年第5期1156-1165,共10页Carsologica Sinica

基　　金：岩溶峰丛区特长公路隧道绿色建造关键技术研究(甘肃省建设科技项目/JK2024-39);复杂岩溶管道流体力学过程与岩溶塌陷形成机制(国家基本科研业务重大项目);岩溶塌陷地质灾害风险评价(DD20230441)。

摘　　要：涌水突泥是岩溶区隧道建设面临的重大地质安全问题,常造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡。在实际工作中,对隧道涌水的可能性判断是决定是否采取相应预防和处置措施的重要依据。由于隧道涌水的地质影响因素错综复杂,这项工作以往多凭借经验进行定性分析,误报漏报率非常高,如何通过定量分析提高判断准确性亟待解决。作为一种探索,文章以桂河高速泗顶特长隧道为例,在水文地质调查分析研究的基础上,构建了基于决策树模型的岩溶隧道涌水突泥可能性快速判断方法、指标参数和预测模型。结果表明,泗顶特长隧道各里程段涌水概率最高为88.1%,发生大型涌水突泥的可能性非常大,实际建设过程中也正是在预测概率最高段发生了涌水突泥。该方法可以为后期类似工程有针对性地开展超前预报提供借鉴。With the ongoing advancement of infrastructure projects,such as highways and railways,in China,karst tunnel construction is increasingly evolving towards longer,larger,and deeper dimensions.The problem of water and mud inrush in tunnels is becoming more and more severe.Effective measures for the advance prediction of water and mud inrush in tunnels have consistently been a pressing convern for management departments and engineering construction units.This issue also remains a significant challenge in related research fields.It is essential for us to assess the likelihood of tunnel water and mud inrush when determining whether to carry out advance prediction and identifying the appropriate mileage segment for conducting the prediction.This assessment is vital for targeted interventions,minimizing construction costs,and enhancing prediction accuracy.To some extent,the assessment of the likelihood of water inrush in tunnels falls under the category of advance prediction and serves as the foundational element for conducting such prediction.The rapid assessment of the likelihood of water inrush in karst tunnels is an important basis for deciding whether to carry out advance prediction and to take measures for emergency treatment.This rapid assessment was often absent in previous work.Even though assessments for the likelihood of water inrush were conducted occasionally in several tunnels,they were primarily based on qualitative methods of geological analysis.This often resulted in discrepancies from actual conditions,leading to misjudgments.In some tunnels,significant manpower and resources were sometimes expended on predicting water inrush,advance prediction,and tunnel waterproofing design,yet no water inrush occurred.Conversely,the sections of some tunnels that were neither predicted nor adequately protected experienced severe water and mud inrush.Therefore,the accuracy of assessments regarding the likelihood of water inrush in tunnels is crucial for determining whether to undertake subsequent prediction and prevent

关 键 词：泗顶特长隧道 岩溶 决策树 隧道超前预报 概率 涌水突泥 

分 类 号：U453.61[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] P642.25[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]