基于层次模型的极地船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估  

Hierarchical model-based risk assessment of polar ship−iceberg collision

作　　者：董海波[1,2,3] 卞鑫 柴威 刘俊杰 李政杰[1,2,3] 赵南 DONG Haibo;BIAN Xin;CHAI Wei;LIU Junjie;LI Zhengjie;ZHAO Nan(China Ship Scientific Research Center,Wuxi 214082,China;Taihu Laboratory of Deepsea Technological Science,Wuxi 214082,China;National Key Laboratory of Ship Structural Safety,Wuxi 214082,China;School of Naval Architecture,Ocean and Energy Power Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶科学研究中心,江苏无锡214082 [2]深海技术科学太湖实验室,江苏无锡214082 [3]船舶结构安全全国重点实验室,江苏无锡214082 [4]武汉理工大学船海与能源动力工程学院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《中国舰船研究》2024年第S02期90-99,共10页Chinese Journal of Ship Research

摘　　要：[目的]为确保极地船舶航行安全,开展典型海域船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估。[方法]针对船舶在巴伦支海航行的情景,在识别风险影响要素的基础上,构建船舶-冰山碰撞层次模型;提出一种改进的要素权重系数确定方法,通过与要素模糊评价相结合,发展形成一套完整的碰撞风险研究方法;结合专家意见,采用所提方法对碰撞风险进行计算和评估。[结果]结果显示,极地船舶在巴伦支海航行过程中碰撞冰山的风险等级为中等偏高,冰山冰况、人为失误和船舶自身是造成碰撞风险最主要的3个要素。[结论]极地船舶在巴伦支海航行时,应对冰山潜在的危险给予足够的重视,并采取必要的控制措施防止碰撞发生。[Objective]In order to ensure the navigation safety of polar ships,ship-iceberg collision risk assessment is carried out in typical sea areas.[Methods]Considering the scenario of a ship sailing in the Barents Sea,this study constructs a hierarchical model of ship-iceberg collision on the basis of identifying the risk influencing factors,then proposes an improved method for determining the factor weight coefficient.Combined with a fuzzy evaluation of factors,a comprehensive approach to calculating risks is developed.The collision risk is then calculated and assessed using the method in this paper in combination with expert opinions.[Results]The risk of ship-iceberg collision in the Barents Sea is slightly higher than the medium level,and the three main factors behind the collision risk are the iceberg conditions,human error and the ship itself.[Conclusion]When polar ships sail in the Barents Sea,attention should be paid to the potential danger posed by icebergs,and the necessary control measures should be taken to avoid collision.

关 键 词：风险评估 层次分析法 碰撞 专家意见 模糊数 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]