中国食物消费温室气体排放:区域差异与情景分析  

GHG Emissions from Food Consumption in China: Regional Differences and Scenario Analysis

作　　者：侯欢 鲜帛彤 隋明杉 许雅琳 李梦 王雅楠[1] 任彦军[1] 陈伟[1] HOU Huan;XIAN Botong;SUI Mingshan;XU Yalin;LI Meng;WANG Yanan;REN Yanjun;CHEN Wei(College of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling Shaanxi 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济与管理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第1期210-220,共11页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金,青年科学基金项目“全程耦合下特大城市食物系统低碳转型影响机制与调控路径研究”(42401374);国家自然科学基金项目“高质量发展下工业用地利用转型:演化机制、环境效应与协同优化研究”(72074181)。

摘　　要：食物系统的温室气体排放量已经占到全球人为温室气体排放量的三分之一以上。论文采用混合LCA-IO方法对中国农产品从农场到餐桌的生产、加工、运输和销售四个阶段的温室气体排放量进行了测量,并采用地理加权回归(GWR)模型对食物温室气体排放驱动力进行分析。结果表明:(1)食物生产和加工过程中的温室气体排放量占温室气体排放总量的90%以上;(2)人均消费、消费结构、人口规模和经济发展成为影响温室气体排放的主要驱动因素;(3)通过情景分析,以大豆和蛋类代替肉类可以有效减少温室气体排放,有助于实现温升1.5℃的目标。此外,水产品和单胃肉的替代也可以在一定程度上起到温室气体减排的作用。论文最后从生产者和消费者的角度提出相应的减排建议。Food systems are already responsible for more than a third of the world’s man-made greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.In this study,the mixed LCA-IO method is adopted to measure GHG emissions in the four stages of production,processing,transportation and sales from farm to table in China.Geographically weighted regression(GWR)model is used to analyze the driving force of food GHG emissions.The results show:(1)GHG emissions from food production and processing account for more than 90%of the total GHG emissions.(2)Per capita consumption,consumption structure,population size and economic development become the main driving factors affecting GHG emissions.(3)Through scenario analysis,the results show that replacing meat with soybeans and eggs can effectively reduce GHG emissions and help achieve the goal of 1.5℃.In addition,the replacement of aquatic products and single stomach meat can also play a role in GHG emission reduction to a certain extent.Finally,we put forward corresponding emission reduction proposals from the perspectives of producers and consumers.

关 键 词：温室气体排放 LCA-IO模型 食物消费结构 情景分析 可持续消费 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]