基于经验模态分解重构方法的北江飞来峡洪水频率分析  

Flood Frequency Analysis of Feilaixia in Beijiang River Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition Reconstruction

作　　者：王进[1,2] 李湘姣[1] 王欢[3] WANG Jin;LI Xiangjiao;WANG Huan(Guangdong Provincial Hydrological Bureau,Guangzhou 510150,China;Guangzhou Hydrological Branch,Guangdong Provincial Hydrological Bureau,Guangzhou 510150,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210017,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局,广东广州510150 [2]广东省水文局广州水文分局,广东广州510150 [3]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210017

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第12期1-10,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3002902);水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室开放基金(WX20241100512)。

摘　　要：在历史洪水考证(1764—)和实测洪水(1953—2024年)的基础上,应用时序图、滑动均值、M-K方法、Hurst指数等对北江飞来峡站洪水的一致性进行了检验;根据P-Ⅲ频率分析方法,采用历史考证洪水对洪水系列重新排序进行洪水频率分析,基于经验模态(Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD)分解与合成的频率计算方法对洪水频率进行了分析计算。结果表明:北江极端洪水自1990年代中期表现出趋多趋频趋强的特点,经检验发生了显著变异;采用传统的水文频率计算方法得到的各频率洪水设计值比原设计值增大500~600 m^(3)/s;采用基于EMD分解与合成的频率计算方法得到2020水平年的各频率设计值增大3500 m^(3)/s以上,2030水平年的各频率设计值增大3800 m^(3)/s以上。基于EMD分解重构的洪水频率计算方法能够及时对变化环境做出响应,具有一定的推广应用价值。北江飞来峡站的水文频率计算结果发生了较大的改变,宜尽快重新核定。Based on historical flood data(1764—)and measured flood data(1953—2024),the consistency of floods at Feilaixia Station in Beijiang River was tested using time series diagrams,sliding means,M-K method,and Hurst index.According to the P-III frequency analysis method,historical flood data were used to re-rank the flood series for flood frequency analysis.The frequency calculation method based on empirical mode decomposition(EMD)and synthesis was used to analyze and calculate the flood frequency.The results indicate that the extreme floods in Beijiang River have shown a trend of increasing frequency and intensity since the mid-1990s,and significant variations have occurred after testing.The flood design values for each frequency obtained using traditional hydrological frequency calculation methods increase by 500~600 m^(3)/s compared to the original design values.By using the frequency calculation method based on EMD and synthesis,the design values of each frequency for the 2020 level year increase by more than 3500 m^(3)/s,and for the 2030 level year,the design values of each frequency increase by more than 3800 m^(3)/s.The flood frequency calculation method based on EMD reconstruction can respond to changing environments in a timely manner and has certain promotion and application value.The hydrological frequency calculation results of Feilaixia Station in Beijiang River have undergone significant changes and need to be re-evaluated as soon as possible.

关 键 词：变化环境 一致性 水文频率 设计洪水 经验模态分解 EMD 北江 飞来峡 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]