基于负荷预测的区域能源生产执行系统研究  

Research on Regional Energy Production Execution System Based on Load Forecasting

作　　者：吴佳 温情 牛俊鹏 WU Jia;WEN Qing;NIU Junpeng(Shanghai SIPAI Intelligent Systems Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200233,China)

机构地区：[1]上海西派埃智能化系统有限公司,上海200233

出　　处：《自动化仪表》2024年第12期106-111,117,共7页Process Automation Instrumentation

摘　　要：在“碳达峰、碳中和”战略目标下,区域集中供能既可以有效提高能源利用率,又可以充分利用各种可再生能源,是当前城市规划商务区、社区建设的配套设计。通过对某已投入运行多年的集中供能站进行研究,在原总控系统的基础上搭建基于负荷预测的执行策略算法平台,并下发调度指令以执行生产。构建从区域能源负荷预测、设备优化组合策略生成到生产设备启停和运行功率调节的区域能源生产执行系统。基于随机森林的负荷预测模型充分考虑了区域用能对象特性。该模型的预测准确度能够支撑能源设备启停策略生成,从而确保所设计的执行系统可投入实际应用。经实际运行,系统在满足能源站生产需求的同时,可以使设备在能效较高的水平下稳定运行。Under the strategic goal of“carbon peak,carbon neutral”,regional centralized energy supply can effectively improve the energy utilization rate and make full use of various renewable energy sources,which is a supporting design for the construction of business districts and communities in the current urban planning.Through the research on a centralized energy supply station that has been in operation for many years,the algorithm platform of execution strategy based on load forecast is built based on the original master control system,and dispatching instructions are issued to execute production.A regional energy production execution system is constructed from regional energy load prediction,equipment optimization mix strategy generation to production equipment start/stop and operation power adjustment.The load prediction model based on random forest takes into full consideration the characteristics of regional energy-using objects.The prediction accuracy of the model can support the generation of start/stop strategies for energy equipment,which ensures that the designed execution system can be put into practical application.After actual operation,the system can meet the production demand of the energy station,and at the same time enable the equipment to operate stably at a high level of energy efficiency.

关 键 词：生产执行系统 负荷预测 区域供能 生产系统 能效 设备组合 机器学习 

分 类 号：TH183[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]