可持续发展与碳排放脱钩模型构建与应用  

Construction and application of decoupling model between sustainable development and carbon emissions

作　　者：赵栩婕 王文军[1,2,3] 谢鹏程[1,2,3] 蔡国田 ZHAO Xujie;WANG Wenjun;XIE Pengcheng;CAI Guotian(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,CAS,Guangzhou 510640,China;Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy,CAS,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广州510640 [2]中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室,广州510640 [3]广东省可再生能源重点实验室,广州510640

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第11期2194-2209,共16页Resources Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFB3304503);广东省基础与应用基础研究面上基金项目(2023A1515011476)。

摘　　要：【目的】本文旨在构建测算可持续发展与碳排放脱钩关系的分析方法,为评价可持续发展目标与碳排放脱钩关系提供工具支撑,帮助决策者找出可持续发展行动的减碳短板,为推进可持续发展与碳排放全面脱钩提供科学依据。【方法】基于“气候变化严重威胁人类的生存和可持续发展”的科学论断,借鉴Tapio脱钩模型建设机理和分类标准,结合联合国SDGs目标,采用“可持续发展指标增长率”与“碳排放增长率”之间的弹性变化关系度量两者脱钩关系的方法构建了可持续发展与碳排放脱钩模型(SDCEM),运用SDCEM对中国30个省份2006—2021年可持续发展综合水平、4个可持续发展指标的碳排放脱钩状态进行了计算和分析。【结果】①从SDCEM脱钩综合指数看,中国可持续发展水平正朝着与碳排放脱钩的方向演进,2006—2021年,呈“弱脱钩”状态的省份数量由8个增长到14个,“扩张性连接”状态的省份数量由5个增加到11个,“扩张性负脱钩”状态的省份数量由13个下降到4个;②可持续发展水平与碳排放脱钩状态存在较大省际差异,脱钩进程不一,东北、华北、华中、西南地区的脱钩状态相对较好,2021年这些地区大部分省份已经处于“弱脱钩”状态;中南、华东和西北地区的脱钩状态相对较差,2021年大部分省份仍然处于“扩张连接”状态;③2021年中国30个省份中有12个省份可持续发展水平与碳排放脱钩状态低于经济增长与碳排放脱钩状态,主要原因在于非经济要素与碳排放脱钩状态差。【结论】①SDCEM模型适用于度量可持续发展与碳排放的脱钩关系,具有较高的灵敏度,显著性和政策效果映射性;②非经济要素对碳排放增速的影响正变得越来越重要,生态文明建设对推进可持续发展与碳排放脱钩具有显著成效,建议未来加强对可持续发展目标中的非经济要素脱碳管理,协同实现可持[Objective]This study aimed to develop a quantitative assessment method to measure the degree of decoupling between sustainable development and carbon emissions,provide a tool to support the evaluation of the decoupling relationship between sustainable development goals(SDGs)and carbon emissions,help decision makers find the carbon reduction shortcomings of sustainable development actions,and provide a scientific basis for promoting the comprehensive decoupling of sustainable development and carbon emissions.[Methods]Based on the scientific thesis that climate change seriously threatens human survival and sustainable development,the construction mechanism and classification standards of the Tapio decoupling model were used in the study.Based on the United Nations’sustainable development goals,the elastic change relationship between the sustainable development indicator growth rate and the carbon emission growth rate was used to measure the decoupling relationship between them,and the SDGs and carbon emission decoupling estimation model(SDCEM)was constructed.The SDCEM model is being applied to calculate and analyze the decoupling status of carbon emissions in terms of comprehensive sustainable development levels and four sustainable development indicators across 30 provinces of China from 2006 to 2021.[Results](1)Based on the SDCEM decoupling comprehensive index,China’s sustainable development level is evolving towards decoupling from carbon emissions.From 2006 to 2021,the number of provinces in China with weak decoupling status between sustainable development and carbon emissions increased from 8 to 14,the number of provinces in expansionary connection increased from 5 to 11,and the number of provinces in expansionary negative decoupling decreased from 13 to 4.(2)There were large inter-provincial and intra-provincial differences in the decoupling status of sustainable development and carbon emissions in the 30 provinces,and the decoupling process varied.The decoupling status of sustainable development and car

关 键 词：碳排放 可持续发展 脱钩效应 SDCEM模型 福利分析 中国 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]