河南省经济-环境-矿产资源耦合协调发展评价及预测  

Evaluation and forecast of the coupled coordinated development ofeconomy-environment-mineral resources in Henan Province

作　　者：耿进强 张骁睿 GENG Jinqiang;ZHANG Xiaorui(School of Urban Geology and Engineering,Hebei GE0 University,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学城市地质与工程学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《河北环境工程学院学报》2024年第6期51-56,共6页Journal of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：采用组合权重法、耦合协调度模型与障碍度模型分析2010—2022年河南省经济-环境-矿产资源的耦合协调效应及障碍因子,并应用ARIMA-GM模型预测河南省2023—2027年的耦合协调度发展趋势。结果表明:经济发展指数呈稳步上升趋势,环境发展指数、矿产资源发展指数呈“W”型趋势变化,整个系统耦合协调水平有所提升,但仍处于濒临失调状态;各子系统协调发展障碍度从高到低依次是经济子系统、环境子系统和矿产资源子系统;分情景预测,情景4相对改善力度最大,其耦合协调度在2027年为0.815,达到良好协调发展水平。The analysis from 2010 to 2022 in Henan Province employed a combination of the composite weighting method,the coupling coordination degree model,and the obstacle degree model to examine the coupling and coordination effects,as well as the obstacle factors of the economy-environment-mineral resource nexus.Furthermore,the ARIMA-GM model was employed to predict the developmental trend of coupled coordination in Henan Province for the years 2023 to 2027.The results indicate that the economic development index has shown a steady upward trend,while the environmental and mineral resource development indices have exhibited a“W”shaped trend.Although the overall system's coupled coordination level has improved,it still remains in a state of imbalance.The descending order of the obstacle degrees to coordinated development among the sub-systems is as follows:the economic sub-system,the environmental sub-system,and the mineral resource sub-system.Predictions under different scenarios reveal that scenario 4 demonstrates the greatest relative improvement,with a coupled coordination degree of 0.815 by 2027,reaching the category of good coordinated development.

关 键 词：河南省 组合权重法 耦合协调度 障碍度模型 ARIMA-GM模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]