气候变化背景下沿海城市轨道交通网络韧性评估——以深圳市为例  

Resilience Assessment of Railway Transit Network in Coastal Cities in the Context of Climate Change——A Case Study of Shenzhen

作　　者：胡文昊 尚凯 葛懿夫 翟国方[1] 张钰佳 HU Wenhao;SHANG Kai;GE Yifu;ZHAI Guofang;ZHANG Yujia(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;School of Architecture,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,江苏南京210093 [2]清华大学建筑学院,北京100084

出　　处：《灾害学》2025年第1期167-173,186,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“城镇可持续发展关键技术与装备”重点专项《城市系统韧性功能提升关键技术研究与应用》(编号2023YFC3805200)课题四:资源约束下城市(群)系统韧性功能协同恢复和提升技术(2023YFC3805204);中日国际合作项目“中国における災害時パニックならびに災害時クレーズの発生要因についての研究”(18K03022[平成30年度基盤研究(C)])。

摘　　要：轨道交通网络是大型城市人口高效通勤的有力保障,在全球气候变化背景下,沿海城市轨道交通网络受到海平面上升及一系列连锁效应的威胁。该文以深圳市为例对未来不同情景下的轨道交通网络进行复杂网络建模及韧性评估。结果表明:①海平面的不断上升,对轨道交通网络的整体韧性带来显著影响;②当考虑到气候变化的累积效应时,网络韧性下降更加显著;③关键站点的失效对轨道交通网络的影响更大,包括自身失效的影响和造成其他站点间接失效的影响;④沿海存在多处较严重的地表沉降区域,区域内站点受到地表沉降和海平面上升的共同作用。研究以海平面上升作为灾害背景进行轨道交通网络的韧性评估并将地表沉降因素考虑在内,可为沿海城市轨道交通的长期安全发展提供理论参考。In the context of global climate change,the rail transit network of coastal cities is at risk due to sea level rise and its associated effects.We employ Shenzhen as a case study for the modelling of complex networks and the assessment of the resilience of rail networks under various future scenarios.The findings indicate that the resilience of the rail network is significantly impacted by sea level rise,with this impact increasing further when the cumulative effect of climate change is considered.Furthermore,failures at key stations have a relatively greater impact on the rail network,as failures at key stations can lead to indirect failures at other stations.The coastal area of Shenzhen is characterised by several areas of severe surface subsidence,with the rail stations located within these areas being affected by both surface subsidence and sea level rise.In summary,we take sea level rise and its associated hazards as the context for the resilience assessment of the railway network,with surface subsidence taken into account.The study results provide a theoretical reference for the longterm safe development of rail transport in coastal cities.

关 键 词：气候变化 海平面上升 轨道交通 网络韧性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X915.5