基于DEA模型的区域物流与应急管理协同发展测度——以京津冀地区为例  

Measurement of Coordinated Development of Regional Logistics and Emergency Management Based on DEA Model——Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as an Example

作　　者：李佰辰 贺玉德 李佳培 葛明娜 LI Baichen;HE Yude;LI Jiapei;GE Mingna(School of Management,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;Strategy and Management Base of Mineral Resources in Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学管理学院,河北石家庄050031 [2]河北省矿产资源战略与管理研究基地,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《灾害学》2025年第1期194-198,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：河北省矿产资源战略与管理研究基地科研项目资助“资源环境绿色发展与低碳物流系统协同发展研究”(KCGL202410);河北省区域科学学会决策咨询调研课题“乡村振兴背景下农村智慧物流建设研究”(2024RSAHTT05);河北地质大学研究生教改项目“工程管理类学位研究生数据能力培养模式路径研究”(YJGX2023015);河北地质大学研究生课程建设项目“基于“数据+案例”应急物流管理课程研究”(YALK2025008)。

摘　　要：当今世界自然灾害、公共卫生事件、军事冲突等突发事件频发,对各地发展带来较大隐患。应急管理成为构建安全生产和社会稳定的坚实保障,而区域物流是应急管理实现的主要载体,科学评价两者协同程度,对推动区域可持续发展具有重要意义。该文以京津冀为例,运用DEA模型对2014—2023年区域物流与应急管理协同发展水平进行测度,二者之间的协同发展趋势呈现出阶段性波动趋势,后用Tobit回归模型测评影响两者协同发展效率的因素,结果表明:城市化进程和区位因素对二者的协同发展效率显著正相关,应急储备水平对京津冀区域物流与应急管理协同发展效率显著负相关,而产业结构和信息化水平均未达到显著性水平。该成果以期为优化区域物流与应急管理的协同策略提供参考依据。In today’s world,natural disasters,public health events,military conflicts and other emergencies occur frequently,which bring great hidden dangers to the development of various regions.Emergency management has become a solid guarantee for building safe production and social stability,and regional logistics is the main carrier of emergency management.Scientific evaluation of the degree of synergy between the two is of great significance for promoting regional sustainable development.Therefore,taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration as an example,a DEA model is constructed to measure the coordinated development level of regional logistics and emergency management from 2014 to 2023.The coordinated development trend between the two shows a fluctuating trend.Then,the Tobit regression model is used to evaluate the factors affecting the coordinated development efficiency of the two.The results show that the urbanization process and location factors have a significant positive correlation with the coordinated development efficiency of the two.The level of emergency reserve has a significant negative correlation with the coordinated development efficiency of regional logistics and emergency management in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,while the industrial structure and information level have not reached a significant level.

关 键 词：DEA模型 区域物流 应急管理 TOBIT回归模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] F259.2[经济管理—国民经济] X915.5