考虑单位成本效益的列控车载设备预防性维修决策研究  

Research on Preventive Maintenance Strategy of Train Control System On-board Equipment Considering Unit Cost-effectiveness

作　　者：彭聪 上官伟[1,2] 王宗耀 彭佳力 蔡伯根[1,2,3] PENG Cong;SHANGGUAN Wei;WANG Zongyao;PENG Jiali;CAI Baigen(School of Automation and Intelligence,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;State Key Laboratory of Advanced Rail Autonomous Operation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Frontiers Science Center for Smart High-speed Railway System,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学自动化与智能学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学先进轨道交通自主运行全国重点实验室,北京100044 [3]北京交通大学智慧高铁系统前沿科学中心,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道学报》2024年第12期77-85,共9页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金(L231003);国家自然科学基金(52272328);装备预研教育部联合基金(8091B022238)。

摘　　要：科学合理的预防性维修策略是降低设备故障风险、提高设备可用性和减少全寿命周期成本的重要途径。基于某线路的列控车载设备不同部件的小样本故障数据,首先基于不确定对数正态分布的车载设备部件可靠性评估方法;其次分析不同维修活动对故障率的影响,引入递减过程参数动态调整预防性维修的间隔;最后推导设备可用性和维修成本的数学模型,构建考虑单位成本效益的预防性维修决策。研究结果表明,在小样本条件下,不确定对数正态分布更能描述列控车载设备部件可靠性变化的趋势。在一个维修周期内,单位成本效益呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,降低故障后维修的成本与预防性维修成本的比值,最优维修周期会相应滞后,而单位成本效益则会随着比值的降低而增大。研究成果可为列控车载设备确定预防性维修周期、提高设备可用性和降低运营成本提供重要的理论支撑。Scientific and reasonable preventive maintenance strategy is an important way to reduce the risk of equipment failure,improve the availability of equipment and reduce the life cycle cost.Based on the small sample fault data of different parts of the train control on-board equipment of a certain railway line,a reliability assessment method based on uncertain lognormal distribution was first proposed.Next,the impact of different maintenance activities on the failure rate was analyzed,and the preventive maintenance interval was dynamically adjusted by introducing decreasing update process parameters.Finally,with the mathematical model of equipment availability and maintenance costs derived,the preventive maintenance strategy considering unit cost effectiveness was constructed.The results show that under the condition of small sample,the uncertain lognormal distribution can better describe the trend of reliability change of on-board equipment components.Within a maintenance cycle,the unit cost-effectiveness shows a trend of first increasing before decreasing.If the ratio between the cost of maintenance after failure and the cost of preventive maintenance is reduced,the optimal maintenance cycle will lag correspondingly,while the unit cost-effectiveness will increase with the decrease of the ratio.The research results can provide important theoretical support for determining preventive maintenance cycles,improving equipment availability and reducing operating costs of train control on-board equipment.

关 键 词：列控车载设备 不确定对数正态分布 可靠性评估 预防性维修 单位成本效益 

分 类 号：U284.48[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制]