ARIMA模型在非居民用水基准额度预测中的应用  

Application of ARIMA model in predicting non-residential water consumption benchmark quotas

作　　者：韦慧 WEI Hui(Shanghai Water Supply Management Center,Shanghai 200081,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市供水管理事务中心,上海200081

出　　处：《水利发展研究》2024年第12期124-129,共6页Water Resources Development Research

摘　　要：随着城镇化步伐的持续加速,水资源匮乏问题愈发严峻,加强对水资源消耗主体,特别是非居民用水大户,如工业与服务业单位的用水规划与管理,成为推动城市节水战略、平衡水资源供需关系的关键环节。非居民用水规划管理的一大挑战,在于确立科学合理的用水基准额度。文章聚焦于上海市非居民领域的用水情况,运用ARIMA时间序列分析模型,分别针对单一用户与不同行业进行用水量预测。结果表明,相较于传统的加权平均方法,ARIMA模型在预测精度上具有显著优势,能够为精准预测和调控非居民用水基准额度提供有力支撑。With the continuous acceleration of urbanization,the problem of water scarcity has become increasingly severe.Strengthening water consumption planning and management for water consuming entities,especially non residential water users such as industrial and service units,has become a key link in promoting urban water-saving strategies and balancing water supply and demand.One major challenge in non residential water use planning and management is to establish a scientifically reasonable water consumption benchmark quota.This article focuses on the water consumption situation in non residential areas of Shanghai,using the ARIMA time series analysis model to predict water usage for individual users and various industries.The results indicate that compared to traditional weighted average method,ARIMA models have significant advantages in prediction accuracy and can provide strong support for accurate prediction and regulation of non residential water consumption benchmark quotas.

关 键 词：用水基准额度 ARIMA模型 加权平均 节水 节水优先 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]