中国新能源汽车产业技术创新的竞合关系研究——基于Lotka-Volterra种群竞争模型分析  

Technology Innovation:Based on Lotka-Volterra Population Competition Model Analysis

作　　者：赵巧芝[1] 陈昊 张力晖 Zhao Qiaozhi;Chen Hao;Zhang Lihui(Department of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;Science and Technology Department,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济管理系,保定071003 [2]华北电力大学科学技术处,保定071003

出　　处：《技术经济》2024年第12期47-59,共13页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金“数字经济驱动制造业高质量发展的机制识别与河北场景研究”(HB23ZT008);河北省社会科学发展研究课题“面向碳中和目标的电力行业绿色技术创新行为及提升对策研究”(20230202047)。

摘　　要：新能源汽车产业是国家新质生产力培育的重要部门。根据比亚迪、吉利和五菱汽车企业2013—2022年新能源汽车专利数据,构建Lotka-Volterra种群竞争模型,探究新能源汽车企业技术创新竞合关系模式及演变趋势。研究发现:①竞合关系已成为新能源汽车产业技术创新演变的重要驱动变量;②三家龙头企业间的竞合关系模式存在明显的差异性。当前,“比亚迪汽车+吉利汽车”“五菱汽车+吉利汽车”两两间表现为“双向促进型”,而“比亚迪汽车+五菱汽车”则表现为“竞争合作型”的关系模式;③仿真结果显示,随着竞合系数的变化,三个创新主体创新产出呈现出明显差异化的变化态势。“双向促进型”竞合关系强度上升,对新能源汽车产业技术创新绩效的影响为正,其中吉利与五菱汽车间的促进作用最突出。因此,优化不同创新主体间有序竞争模式,增强龙头企业的合理竞争强度,是新能源汽车产业实现高质量创新成果增长、支撑新质生产力培育的重要方向。New energy vehicle industry is an important strategic emerging industry for cultivating national new quality productive forces.Based on patent application data from 2013 to 2022 of the three enterprises(BYD,GEELY and WULING),Lotka-Volterra population competition model was constructed to explore out their coopetition relation mode and evolving trends.Main conclusions are as follows.Firstly,coopetition relation has been an important driving factor to stimulate technological innovation evolution.Secondly,their coopetition model shows great heterogeneity among the three leading enterprises.At current stage,“BYD+GEELY”“WULING+GEELY”show such mutually promoting type.Meanwhile,“BYD+WULING”show the competition-cooperation type.Thirdly,in accordance with simulation results,innovation outputs of enterprises vary with coopetition relation coefficient changes.Innovation output effect of new vehicle industry is positive when the coopetition intensity of mutually-prompting type grows.The positive innovation effect from“WULING+GEELY”coopetition intensity growth is more than that from the other one.Therefore,cultivating orderly competition and coordinated cooperation mode mechanism,especially most potential competition types,should be paid more focus on realizing its high-quality innovation outputs and supporting its new-quality productivity formation for the new energy vehicle industry of China.

关 键 词：新质生产力 技术创新系统 新能源汽车 竞合关系 种群竞争模型 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]