建设金融强国背景下的金融发展的合理边界假说及检验——基于金融业增加值占比视角  

The Reasonable Boundary Hypothesis and Testing Financial Development Against the Backdrop of Building a Financial Superpower From the Perspective of Value Added by the Financial Sector

作　　者：邱蓉 田子豪 周文 Qiu Rong;Tian Zihao;Zhou Wen

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学西部现代化研究中心 [2]贵州财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2024年第6期145-161,共17页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：教育部新农科研究与改革实践项目(2020142);贵州省教育厅2023年研究基地项目(23RWJD112);广东金融学会2023—2024年度基础课题(JCKT202315)。

摘　　要：金融是国民经济的血脉,是国家核心竞争力的重要组成部分,因此要锚定建设金融强国目标,扎实推进金融高质量发展。金融发展理论尚未对金融安全边界展开具体研究。基于已有研究和世界主要发达经济体金融发展的事实特征,提出一国应当存在与其经济发展相适应的金融合理边界假说。基于2010—2022年省级面板数据,运用动态面板门槛模型和双向固定效应模型,验证上述假说。通过比较世界主要发达经济体的金融发展的事实,类推中国金融发展的合理边界;通过测算各个省份金融发展合理范围表征中国金融发展的合理边界,最终得出结论,即中国金融发展合理范围为6.0%~7.0%,最高不超过7.5%。基于此,要筑牢金融安全边界意识,确定金融发展的合理范围,发挥国家调控功能,实现金融合理发展。As finance is the lifeblood of a nation’s economy and a critical component of a country’s core competitiveness,it is of critical importance to anchor the goal of building a financial superpower and firmly advance high-quality financial development.However,specific research on the boundary of financial security has yet to be conducted based on the theory of financial development.This study proposed the hypothesis that a country should establish a reasonable financial boundary that is compatible with its economic development.In this study,the dynamic panel threshold model and two-way fixed effects model were applied to test the aforesaid hypothesis based on provincial panel data from 2010 to 2022.This study determined the reasonable boundary of China’s financial development by comparing relevant literature on financial development in the world’s major developed economies.After characterizing the reasonable boundary of China’s financial development by measuring the reasonable boundary of financial development in each province,it was concluded that the reasonable range of China’s financial development lies between 6.0%and 7.0%,with a maximum of 7.5%.Therefore,there is a need to bolster awareness of the boundary of financial security,determine the reasonable range of financial development,and realize the country’s regulatory function with the goal of achieving reasonable financial development.

关 键 词：建设金融强国 金融发展 金融业增加值占比 金融安全 合理边界 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]