绿色低碳转型的分配效应研究——基于公正转型视角  

The Distributional Effects of Green Low-Carbon Transition:A Just Transition Perspective

作　　者：林平[1] 何伟刚 李美洲[1] 李锋森 覃甜雨 Lin Ping;He Weigang;Li Meizhou;Li Fengsen;Qin Tianyu

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行广东省分行

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2024年第6期162-178,共17页Financial Economics Research

摘　　要：构建包含家庭、企业、金融、政府等四部门和碳排放权交易市场的DSGE模型,研究绿色低碳转型对企业部门带来的行业内、行业间的分配效应,在此基础上探讨缩小区域差距、提升社会福利、推进公正转型的政策协调安排。研究表明,绿色低碳转型将对生产性行业和能源行业的产出、就业产生显著的行业间和行业内的分配效应;低碳能源生产技术进步、绿色贷款利率下浮、适度收紧碳排放强度限制可实现各行业的帕累托改进,而高碳能源降碳技术进步和征收高碳中间品碳税会令一部分行业受益,另一部分行业受损,过度收紧碳排放强度限制和限制高碳能源消耗总量则使所有行业受损;能源技术进步和转型政策通过产出效应、就业分配效应对区域经济发展的影响存在显著差异,低碳能源生产技术和绿色贷款利率下浮可在帕累托改进中缩小区域差距,收紧高碳能源消耗总量限制会扩大区域差距,同时使所有区域受损;充分利用不同转型政策之间的差异性和互补性,加强政策协调配合,有助于实现绿色低碳转型的多重目标,减缓转型带来的负面冲击。上述结论蕴含如下政策启示:加快推动“能耗双控”向“碳排放双控”的政策过渡,合理设置政策力度;加强碳减排政策与财税金融政策的协调配合;强化对受转型冲击较大的弱势群体、部分地区的政策支持,兜住民生底线,确保公正转型。This study constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model encompassing four sectors—household,enterprise,financial,and government—and the carbon emission rights trading market to examine the distributional effects of green low-carbon transition on the enterprise sector within and across industries and investigate policy coordination arrangements for narrowing regional disparities,improving social welfare,and advancing a just transition.The results showed significant differences in the impact of green low-carbon transition on output and employment distribution across the four sectors.Specifically,technological advances in low-carbon energy production,lower interest rates on green loans,and moderately tightened carbon intensity limits could lead to Pareto improvements across all sectors,whereas technological advances in carbon reduction among high-carbon energy sources and the imposition of carbon tax on high-carbon intermediate goods would benefit some sectors but harm others.Meanwhile,excessively tightening carbon intensity limits and limiting the total amount of high-carbon energy consumption would harm all sectors.The results also showed significant differences in the impact of technological advances in energy sources and transition policies on regional economic development through output and employment distribution effects.Specifically,low-carbon energy production technologies and lower interest rates on green loans could reduce regional disparities in a Pareto improvement,whereas tightening aggregate limits on high-carbon energy consumption would widen regional disparities but harm all regions.Bolstering policy coordination and cooperation by fully leveraging the differences and complementarities between different transition policies would help to achieve the multiple objectives of green low-carbon transition and mitigate the negative impact of such transition.The study makes the following policy recommendations:speed up policy transition from dual controls over energy intensity and total ener

关 键 词：高质量发展 碳达峰碳中和 公正转型 区域协调发展 分配效应 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F124.5[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196