审查逮捕社会危险性量化评估模型的构建——基于二元逻辑回归分析  

A Quantitative Assessment Model for Social Risk in Review and Arrest:Based on Binary Logistic Regression Analysis

作　　者：刘文涛 李冬梅 LIU Wentao;LI Dongmei(Sichuan University of Science&Engineering,Zigong Sichuan 643002,China;Fushun People’s Procuratorate,Zigong Sichuan 643200,China)

机构地区：[1]四川轻化工大学,四川自贡643002 [2]自贡市富顺县人民检察院,四川自贡643200

出　　处：《山西警察学院学报》2024年第6期81-89,共9页Journal of Shanxi Police College

基　　金：2024年度四川省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地基层司法能力研究中心“数字时代智慧法院建设问题研究”(JCSF2024-03)。

摘　　要：借助SPSS统计工具,对A市2019-2021年故意伤害罪强制措施适用情况进行二元逻辑回归分析,可以发现影响审查逮捕社会危险性认定的因素和判断逻辑。由卡方检验可知,在单因素背景下,前科、经济赔偿或退赃、被害人谅解、其他从重情节、伤害结果、自首、坦白对社会危险性的认定具有显著性影响。由回归分析可知,在综合因素背景下,对社会危险性认定具有显著性影响的因素为前科、被害人谅解、其他从重、经济赔偿或退赃、伤害结果,其他因素则不具有显著性影响。根据各个变量的回归系数,可以建立社会危险性的量化评估模型,并对被追诉人适用非羁押措施的风险大小做出预测。With the help of SPSS statistical tools,the binary logistic regression analysis of the application of coercive measures for intentional injury in A city from 2019 to 2021 can reveal the factors and judgment logic affecting the identification of social risk in review and arrest.From the chi-square test,it can be seen that in the single-factor context,criminal record,financial compensation or return of stolen goods,victim’s forgiveness,other aggravating circumstances,injury results,surrender,and confession have a significant effect on the identification of social risk.From the regression analysis,it can be seen that in the context of comprehensive factors,the factors that have a significant impact on the identification of social risk are criminal record,victim’s forgiveness,other aggravating circumstances,financial compensation or return of stolen goods,and injury results,while other factors have no significant impact.On the basis of the regression coefficients of each variable,a quantitative assessment model of social risk can be established,and the risk of applying non-custodial measures to the person being prosecuted can be predicted.

关 键 词：审查逮捕 社会危险性 量化评估 审前羁押 非羁押 

分 类 号：D925.2[政治法律—诉讼法学]