面向可持续发展方案的三角洲研究趋势与展望  

Delta Research for Pathways to Sustainability: Progress and Future Directions

作　　者：张卫国[1] 侯立军[1] 彭忠 袁琳[1] 李秀珍[1] 何青[1] Weiguo Zhang;Lijun Hou;Zhong Peng;Lin Yuan;Xiuzhen Li;Qing He(State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海200241

出　　处：《中国科学基金》2024年第6期946-953,共8页Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划国际合作专项(2017YFE0107400,2022YFE0136700,2023YFE0113100);上海市科学技术委员会项目(23590780200,21230750600)的资助。

摘　　要：三角洲是海岸带陆海相互作用的核心地带,是全球生态环境保护和沿海社会经济发展的战略要地。在高强度人类活动和气候变化影响下,三角洲的动力、地貌、环境、生态过程发生了剧烈变化,三角洲安全和健康问题突出,严重制约了社会经济的可持续发展,是当前全球面临的最紧迫挑战之一。本文分析了全球三角洲安全、健康和发展面临的挑战,回顾了国内外科技研究趋势,阐述了三角洲可持续发展研究的关键科技问题,包括三角洲自然—社会耦合系统演变机制、智能观测与模拟决策技术和综合管理技术。论文最后围绕我国领衔的联合国“海洋十年”“大河三角洲计划”(2021—2030)的有效实施,建议加强全球合作,并就未来开展的研究主题进行了阐述,以期为实现联合国可持续发展议程目标提供中国方案,为推进“一带一路”、人类命运共同体建设做出积极贡献。Deltas,located at crucial areas of land and sea interaction in coastal zones,are global hotspots of ecological protection and strategically important for the socio-economic development of coastal regions.Due to the impacts of intensive human activities and climate change,deltas have experienced significant changes in hydrodynamic,morphological,environmental,and ecological processes.Security and health issues in deltas are pressing concerns,severely hindering sustainable socio-economic development.This represents one of the most urgent global challenges,necessitating international cooperation to provide scientific support for comprehensive delta management and decision-making.This paper examines first the security,health,and development challenges in global deltas.After reviewing research progress and gaps,this paper then identifies key scientific themes in delta research,including evolution mechanism of coupled human-natural deltaic system,intelligent observation-modelling-decision technology,and integrated management technology.Lastly,focusing on the implementation of the UN Ocean Decade Mega-Delta Programme(2021—2030),led by Chinese scientists,this paper calls for enhanced global cooperation and outlines future research directions.It is anticipated that such a study will offer a Chinese pathway to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals,contributing to the realization of the Belt and Road Initiative and building a community of shared future for the mankind.

关 键 词：三角洲 可持续发展 自然—社会耦合系统 观测与模拟 数字孪生 综合管理 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] P343.5[天文地球—水文科学]