采用分时段模糊技术处理实现的短期负荷预报  

Short-term load forecasting for special times using fuzzy inference method

作　　者：段俊东[1] 陈昆薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《继电器》2002年第11期13-15,37,共4页Relay

摘　　要：采用模糊理论对日负荷曲线预报中的天气因素进行了模糊处理 ,根据季节、气候的不同对天气因素做不同的模糊处理和不同数学模型 ,建立了专家处理系统 ,提高了短期负荷预测的精度。通过对河南省某市级电力系统日负荷曲线的模拟预测 ,虽然仅对天气做了模糊处理 ,但预测结果令人满意。This paper adopts fuzzy theory to alter the fuzzy coefficient to vary with the weather changes in the daily load forecasting.It deals with the fuzzy coefficient and builds a different model to vary with the weather and season changes.A expert system is established.The results of short term load forecasting are improved accurately.The system has been exercised to the daily load forecasting in a city power system of Henan province.It does merely deal with the fuzzy coefficient to vary with the weather changes and does not with the temperature and humidity,but the results are satisfied.

关 键 词：日负荷曲线 模糊理论 短期负荷预报 电力系统 模糊处理 

分 类 号：TM714.1[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]