增值税留抵退税政策对企业经营风险的影响研究——基于现金持有量与数字化经营视角  

Research on the Impact of Value Added Tax Retention and Refund Policies on Enterprise Operational Risks:Based on Cash Holdings and Digital Management Perspective

作　　者：樊响 徐菲 FAN Xiang;XU Fei

机构地区：[1]纽卡斯尔大学 [2]南京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2024年第12期44-65,共22页Scientific Decision Making

摘　　要：留抵退税政策作为税收激励措施的关键组成部分,在促进企业开展创新活动、加速技术进步和产业转型升级中扮演着关键角色。本文以2018年实施的增值税留抵退税政策为准自然实验,采用2015至2023年中国A股上市公司数据样本,探讨留抵退税政策对企业经营风险的影响效应。研究发现,留抵退税政策显著降低了企业的经营风险,尤其是在规模较小企业、非国有企业、资本密集度高以及行业竞争激烈的企业中表现更为明显。中介机制显示,留抵退税政策通过缓解企业的融资约束,提升企业现金持有量,同时政策还推动企业采用数字技术实现数字化经营,有效地提高企业抵御风险能力,降低企业经营风险。本文研究结果为深入理解留抵退税政策与企业风险之间的关系提供了新的理论依据,并为优化调整税收政策以更有效地提升企业风险承担能力提供了重要参考。The retention and refund policy,as a key component of tax incentives,plays a crucial role in promoting innovative activities,accelerating technological progress,and industrial transformation and upgrading in enterprises.This article takes the value-added tax retention and refund policy implemented in 2018 as a natural experiment,and uses annual data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2023 as samples to explore the specific impact of the retention and refund policy on business risks.Research has found that the policy of deferred tax refunds significantly reduces the operational risks of enterprises,especially in smaller scale enterprises,non-state-owned enterprises,enterprises with high capital intensity,and industries with fierce competition.The intermediary mechanism found that the deferred tax refund policy alleviates the financing constraints of enterprises,increases their cash holdings,and promotes the adoption of digital technology to achieve digital operations,effectively improving their ability to resist risks and reducing operational risks.The research results of this article provide new theoretical basis for a deeper understanding of the relationship between the policy of retaining tax refunds and corporate risks,and provide important references for optimizing and adjusting tax policies to more effectively enhance corporate risk-taking ability.

关 键 词：留抵退税 经营风险 现金持有量 数字化经营 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理] F810.42[经济管理—国民经济]