乡镇减灾能力评估方法比较研究  

Comparative study on assessment methods for township disaster reduction capacity

作　　者：丁建闯 钟海仁 许礼林 余洁[1] DING Jianchuang;ZHONG Hairen;XU Lilin;YU Jie(School of Resource,Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China;School of Architectural Engineering,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China;GEO-COMPASS Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100142,China)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [2]华北科技学院建筑工程学院,河北三河065201 [3]国信司南(北京)地理信息技术有限公司,北京100142

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2024年第11期49-61,共13页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：自然灾害综合风险评估与区划体系研究(21220010036);廊坊市科技支撑计划项目(2022011013)。

摘　　要：【目的】减灾能力是减灾主体在某层面上用于防灾、抗灾、救灾全过程各方面能力共同作用所形成的总合力。为准确评价并客观反映区域减灾能力大小与不足。【方法】以北京市延庆区“第一次全国自然灾害综合风险普查”基础调查数据为例,分别采用TOPSIS法、RSR法和构造的(T+R)法对该区18个乡镇的减灾能力进行定量化评估,对应得出各乡镇减灾能力C i值、RSR W值和(T+R)μ值,基于实例数据评估结果与计算过程,从评估数值大小、等级排名、整体趋势等方面进行对比分析。【结果】结果显示:18个乡镇中,TOPSIS与RSR法减灾能力排名差距大于3档的有4个乡镇,TOPSIS与(T+R)法减灾能力排名差距大于3档的有2个乡镇,RSR与(T+R)法减灾能力排名差距大于3档的有2个乡镇。同时,(T+R)法评估结果平均值为0.406、极值差为0.375、标准差为0.119,均处于TOPSIS和RSR法中间。三种模型均适用于区域减灾能力定量化评估,可根据区域评估目的和要求进行选择。总体上,RSR法信息损失最大、优劣分档最佳,受异常值干扰最小;TOPSIS法信息损失最小、优劣分档最差,受异常值干扰最大;构造的(T+R)法既克服了RSR法源数据的信息损失,又能对TOPSIS法的优劣分档进行优化,同时有效降低了异常值干扰。【结论】结果表明:将RSR法应用于减灾能力定量化评估可行,因(T+R)法在信息损失、优劣分档、抗异常值干扰等方面的优势明显,是三者中的最佳选择,且可适用于省、市、县、乡、家庭,甚至流域等其他尺度的评估。对(T+R)法的深入研究可为减灾能力定量化评估提供思路和参考。[Objective]Disaster reduction capacity is the total force formed by the joint action of various capacities of disaster reduction subjects in the whole process of disaster prevention,resistance and relief at some level.In order to accurately evaluate and objective ly reflect the size and deficiency of regional disaster reduction capacity,[Methods]the TOPSIS method,RSR method and constructed(T+R)method are used to quantitatively evaluate the disaster reduction capacity of 18 townships in the district based on the basic survey data of“The First National Comprehensive Risk Survey of Natural Disasters”in Yanqing District of Beijing,the C i value,RSR W value and(T+R)μvalue of the disaster reduction capacity of each township are obtained,based on the evaluation result and calculation process of the case data,the evaluation value size,ranking and overall trend are compared and analyzed.[Results]The result show that:Among the 18 townships,4 townships have a ranking gap of more than 3 grades between TOPSIS and RSR,2 townships have a ranking gap of more than 3 grades between TOPSIS and(T+R),and 2 townships have a ranking gap of more than 3 grades between RSR and(T+R).At the same time,the mean value of the evaluation result of(T+R)method is 0.406,the extreme difference is 0.375,and the standard deviation is 0.119,which are all in the middle of TOPSIS and RSR method.All three models are suitable for quantitative assessment of regional disaster reduction capacity and can be selected according to the purpose and requirements of regional assessment.In general,RSR method has the largest information loss,the best classification of advantages and disadvantages,and the least disturbance by outliers;TOPSIS method has the least loss of information,the worst classification of advantages and disadvantages,and the most interference by outliers;The constructed(T+R)method not only overcomes the information loss of source data of RSR method,but also optimizes the classification of TOPSIS method,and effectively reduces the outlier inter

关 键 词：乡镇减灾能力评估 TOPSIS模型 RSR模型 (T+R)模型 信息损失 优劣分档 异常值干扰 影响因素 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5