滇东南喀斯特地区生态系统服务时空演变及权衡协同关系  

Spatiotemporal evolution and trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services in the karst region of southeast Yunnan

作　　者：周豹 陈国平[2] 赵俊三[2,3] 尹莹[1] 于祖国 ZHOU Bao;CHEN Guoping;ZHAO Junsan;YIN Ying;YU Zuguo(College of Electronic and Information Engineering,West Anhui University,Luan 237000,Anhui,China;Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Yunjindi Geo-Information Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650093,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]皖西学院电子与信息工程学院,安徽六安237000 [2]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093 [3]云南云金地科技有限公司,云南昆明650102

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2024年第11期123-142,共20页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42301304,503780262);云南省基础研究计划项目(202201AU070112);昆明理工大学引进人才科研启动基金项目(KKZ3202021055);云南省哲学社会科学规划项目(PY202129)。

摘　　要：【目的】滇东南喀斯特地区是我国重要的生态功能区。然而,随着城镇化进程的加快,生态环境遭受了严重破坏,导致生态服务功能普遍下降。【方法】基于2000—2020年土地利用、气象、土壤、社会经济等多源数据,采用PLUS模型模拟了2035年自然发展情景、生态保护情景和经济发展情景三种情景下的土地利用变化空间格局,并结合InVEST模型评估了产水量、碳储量、土壤保持和生境质量等四种生态系统服务,在此基础上利用Spearman相关系数探究生态系统服务之间的时空权衡协同关系。【结果】(1)2000—2020年,建设用地和水域面积显著增加,分别增加了484.21 km^(2)、154.40 km^(2);而林地、耕地、未利用地和草地面积则减少,分别下降了438.63 km^(2)、89.86 km^(2)、99.47 km^(2)、10.65 km^(2)。2020—2035年,生态保护情景下,建设用地、水域、林地面积呈小幅扩张,草地、耕地和未利用地则呈缩减趋势;自然发展情景下,建设用地增加明显,耕地和草地则减少;经济发展情景下,建设用地大量增加,耕地、林地、草地则大量减少;(2)2000—2020年,研究区生态系统服务变化存在显著差异。产水量呈东南高西北低的空间分布,随时间“先增加后降低”;碳储量变化幅度较小,研究期间碳储量下降区域散落分布在研究区的中部、南部和北部地区;土壤保持呈现南高北低的空间分布特征,随时间变化,西部存在大面积碳储量下降,东部地区存在大面积碳储量增加;生境质量以带状集中分布在研究区的中部和南部,20 a间整体上呈现东西部大面积下降的变化趋势。至2035年,在生态保护情景下,产水量、碳储量、土壤保持和生境质量明显提升,显示出生态保护对于改善地区生态环境的重要性。自然发展和经济发展情景下,高值区域面积显著减少,表明生态系统服务功能受到较大的压力和影响。(3)2000—2020年,土壤保持-[Objective]The karst region in southeastern Yunnan is a crucial ecological functional area in China.However,with the rapid progress of urbanization,the ecological environment has been severely damaged,leading to a general decline in ecosystem service functions.[Methods]Based on multi-source data including land use,meteorology,soil,and socio-economics from 2000 to 2020,the PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial pattern of land use changes under three scenarios by 2035:natural development,ecological protection,and economic development.In conjunction with the InVEST model,four ecosystem services—water yield,carbon storage,soil retention,and habitat quality—were assessed.Spearman′s correlation coefficient was then employed to explore the spatiotemporal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,the areas of construction land and water bodies increased significantly,by 484.21 km^(2) and 154.40 km^(2) respectively,while the areas of forest land,cultivated land,unused land,and grassland decreased by 438.63 km^(2),89.86 km^(2),99.47 km^(2),and 10.65 km^(2) respectively.From 2020 to 2035,under the ecological protection scenario,construction land,water bodies,and forest land areas showed slight expansion,while grassland,cultivated land,and unused land areas showed a shrinking trend.Under the natural development scenario,construction land increased significantly,while cultivated land and grassland decreased.Under the economic development scenario,construction land increased substantially,while cultivated land,forest land,and grassland decreased significantly.From 2000 to 2020,there were significant differences in ecosystem service changes across the study area.Water yield exhibited a southeast-high and northwest-low spatial distribution,with a temporal pattern of“initial increase followed by decrease.”Carbon storage showed small changes,with declining areas scattered in the central,southern,and northern parts of the study area during the research period.Soil retention displ

关 键 词：InVEST模型 PLUS模型 生态系统服务 权衡协同 滇东南喀斯特地区 影响因素 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学] Q948[生物学—植物学]