上皮性卵巢癌患者肿瘤细胞减灭术后复发的列线图预测模型构建  

Construction of a column chart prediction model for recurrence after tumor cell reduction surgery in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer

作　　者：金雯 李宇[2] 王雯智[1] 邓卓 JIN Wen;LI Yu;WANG Wenzhi;DENG Zhuo(Department of Gynecology,Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital,Xi′an 710068,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省人民医院妇科,陕西西安710068 [2]陕西省人民医院放疗科,710068

出　　处：《临床肿瘤学杂志》2024年第10期988-992,共5页Chinese Clinical Oncology

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金项目(2019JQ-974)。

摘　　要：目的构建上皮性卵巢癌(EOC)患者肿瘤细胞减灭术(CRS)后复发的列线图预测模型,为治疗决策提供参考。方法回顾性分析2019年6月至2021年12月于陕西省人民医院行CRS治疗的150例EOC患者的临床资料。根据随访2年内的复发情况,将患者分为复发组(82例)和未复发组(68例),比较两组患者的基线资料差异,采用Logistic回归模型分析EOC患者CRS后复发的影响因素,基于影响因素分析结果构建列线图预测模型,并验证该模型对EOC患者CRS后复发的预测价值。结果随访2年期间,150例EOC患者的复发率为54.67%(82/150)。复发组和未复发组肿瘤最大直径、分化程度、手术满意度和血清25-羟基维生素D3[25-(OH)VD3]水平进行比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。经单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析,结果显示肿瘤最大直径、分化程度、手术满意度和血清25-(OH)VD3是EOC患者CRS后复发的影响因素(P<0.05)。基于影响因素分析结果构建列线图预测模型,经Bootstrap内部验证显示,该模型的预测校准曲线贴近标准曲线,一致性指数为0.920。绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,结果显示,列线图预测模型预测EOC患者CRS后复发的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.920(95%CI:0.879~0.961,P<0.001)。结论血清25-(OH)VD3、肿瘤最大直径、分化程度和手术满意度均是EOC患者CRS后复发的影响因素,且基于上述影响因素构建的列线图预测模型对EOC患者CRS后复发具有良好的预测能力。Objective To construct a column chart prediction model for recurrence of epithelial ovarian cancer(EOC)patients after cytoreductive surgery(CRS)to provide references for treatment decisions.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 150 patients with EOC who underwent CRS treatment at Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital from June 2019 to December 2021.Based on the recurrence rate within 2 years of follow-up,the patients were divided into a recurrence group(82 cases)and a non-recurrence group(68 cases).Baseline data differences between the two groups of patients were compared.Logistic regression model were used to analyze the influencing factors for recurrence after CRS in EOC patients.Based on the analysis results of influencing factors,a column chart prediction model was constructed,and the predictive value of this model for recurrence after CRS in EOC patients was tested.Results During the 2-year follow-up period,the recurrence rate of 150 patients with EOC was 54.67%(82/150).The maximum tumor diameter,degree of differentiation,surgical satisfaction,and serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D3[25-(OH)VD3]levels between the recurrence and non-recurrence groups were compared with statistical significant differences(P<0.05).Through univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis,the results showed that tumor maximum diameter,differentiation degree,surgical satisfaction,and serum 25-(OH)VD3 were the influencing factors for CRS recurrence in EOC patients(P<0.05).Based on the analysis of influencing factors,a column chart prediction model was constructed.Internal validation by Bootstrap showed that the model′s prediction calibration curve was close to the standard curve,with a consistency index of 0.920.The working characteristic curve of the subjects was drawn,and the results showed that the area under the curve of the column chart prediction model predicting the recurrence of CRS in EOC patients was 0.920,with a 95%CI of 0.879~0.961(P<0.001).Conclusion Serum 25-(OH)VD3,maximum tumor diamet

关 键 词：上皮性卵巢癌 肿瘤细胞减灭术 复发 预测模型 

分 类 号：R737.31[医药卫生—肿瘤]