中国城镇劳动力市场的工资结构演进动态--基于极化视角的风险评估  

The Dynamics of Wage Structure in China's Urban Labor Market:A Risk Assessment Based on a Polarization Perspective

作　　者：田柳 Tian Liu(Institute of International Economy,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院,100029 [2]对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院,100029

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2024年第11期212-232,共21页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“新一轮技术革命背景下中国劳动力市场极化风险评估与应用机制”(23YJC790124)的资助。

摘　　要：本文旨在评估中国城镇劳动力市场工资结构演进的极化风险,并为其提供一个综合的分析框架。理论部分在基于任务和内生技术进步的设定下,揭示了技术进步方向会偏向于相对充裕要素的机制,结合中国经济发展过程中的农村剩余劳动力转移及高校扩招政策等现实背景,这些变化在扩大低、高技能劳动力供给的同时,也可能在长期加剧工资结构极化的风险。实证部分使用2002—2018年中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)的城镇数据,详细考察了工资结构的演进动态。工资分解结果显示,在排除了就业结构效应后,2002—2013年的工资结构效应呈现单调递减的变化特征,说明工资分配结构有所改善;2013—2018年的工资结构效应呈现U型变化模式,极化趋势开始显现。进一步使用极化指数方法证实,女性的工资极化程度一般高于男性,教育和合同类型特征的极化程度也较高,这些方面应当是政府在应对极化风险加剧时需要重点关注的。本文从极化视角重新审视我国城镇劳动力市场中的收入分配问题,对于促进中等收入群体形成和推动全体人民共同富裕具有积极的现实启示意义。Many developed countries are facing the issue of labor market polarization,and related discussions are gradually extending to developing countries.This paper aims to assess the risk of polarization in wage structure in China's urban labor market and provide a comprehensive analytical framework for it.Under the framework of task-based and endogenous technical progress,the theoretical part reveals the mechanism that the direction of technical progress will be more biased to relatively abundant factors.While expanding the supply of low-skilled and high-skilled labor surplus,rural labor migration and expanding college enrollment policy may increase the risk of wage polarization in the long run.using urban data from the China Household Income Project(CHIP)between 2002 to 2018,the empirical part examines the dynamics of the wage structure.The wage decomposition method shows that,after excluding the composition effect,the structure effect decreases monotonically between 2002 to 2013,suggesting that the wage structure has improved.The structure effect between 2013 to 2018 shows a U-shaped pattern,which means polarization are emerging.Further,the polarization index approach confirms that women generally have higher wage polarization indices than men,as well as more polarized in education and contract type characteristics.The government thus needs to focus on such aspects in its response to the increased risk of polarization.This paper re-examines the income distribution in China's urban labor market from the perspective of polarization,and has a positive and realistic revelation for promoting the formation of the middle class and the common prosperity.

关 键 词：工资结构 极化 偏向型技术进步 共同富裕 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]