我国高等教育规模扩张、层次提升的经济效应及其拐点研究  

Economic Effect and Inflection Point of China's Higher Educational Expansion and Upgrading

作　　者：赵文学 ZHAO Wenxue(Guangzhou City Polytechnic,Guangzhou 510000,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]广州城市职业学院,广东广州510000

出　　处：《扬州大学学报(高教研究版)》2024年第6期19-29,共11页Journal of Yangzhou University(Higher Education Study Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学一般项目“我国‘双一流’建设绩效的动态监测评价与反馈运用机制研究”(BIA180182)。

摘　　要：21世纪以来,我国高等教育规模扩张迅猛、层次提升明显,为经济社会发展提供了人力资本支撑。通过构建二次函数模型,对我国31个省份2003-2020年面板数据进行回归分析发现:高等教育规模扩张和层次提升对于经济增长具有显著正向效应,但也存在拐点;规模拐点为每10万人普通高校在校生4 431人,层次拐点为高等教育综合指数1.207 7;随着经济社会与高等教育的不断发展,规模拐点逐渐左移,层次提升对于经济增长的促进作用越发明显。当前我国大部分省份仍处于两个拐点的左侧,继续扩大高等教育规模,尤其是通过扩大研究生教育规模提升高等教育层次,仍有利于拉动经济增长;而对于北京等少数超过或接近拐点的省市,应更加重视提升高等教育质量,以构筑世界高等教育高地为发展目标。Since the entrance into the 21st century,the scale of China's higher education has expanded rapidly and the level has improved significantly,which provides human capital support for the economic and social development.The emergence of excessive education implies that the economic effect of higher education expansion and upgrading is unsustainable.A quadratic function regression model is constructed to analyze the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2020 and it is found that the expansion and upgrading of higher education have a significant positive effect on economic growth,but there are also inflection points.The inflection point for scale expansion is 4,431 students in college per 100,000 people,and the inflection point for upgrading is the comprehensive index of higher education reaching 1.2077.With the social and educational progress,the inflection point for scale has gradually shifted to the left,and the promotion effect of upgrading on economic growth is more and more obvious.At present,most provinces are still on the left side of the two inflection points.Continuing to expand the scale of higher education,especially the scale of graduate education,is still conducive to stimulating economic growth.For a few provinces and cities beyond or close to the inflection point,such as Beijing,we should lay more stress on the quality of higher education and take building a highland of world higher education as the development goal.

关 键 词：高等教育规模 高等教育层次 人力资本 过度教育 

分 类 号：G640[文化科学—高等教育学]