基于PLSR-FLUS-MarKov模型的生态系统服务价值多情景预测--以漓江流域为例  

Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on the PLSR-FLUS-MarKov Model:A Case Study of Lijiang River Basin

作　　者：李何英 何文[2] 王金叶 杨帅琦 姚月锋[2] LI Heying;HE Wen;WANG Jinye;YANG Shuaiqi;YAO Yuefeng(College of Tourism&Landscape Architecture,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541006,P.R.China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Plant Conservation and Restoration Ecology in Karst Terrain,Guangxi Institute of Botany,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guilin 541006,P.R.China;Nanning College of Technology,Nanning 543000,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学旅游与风景园林学院,广西桂林541006 [2]广西壮族自治区中国科学院广西植物研究所,广西喀斯特植物保育与恢复生态学重点实验室,广西桂林541006 [3]南宁理工学院,广西南宁530000

出　　处：《水生态学杂志》2025年第1期203-212,共10页Journal of Hydroecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31960252);广西重点研发计划(AB22035060);国家自然科学基金(32060369)。

摘　　要：以漓江流域为研究单元,运用修正后的PLSR-FLUS-MarKov模型和当量因子法,对流域自然发展、生态优先、旅游优先情景下2030年生态系统服务价值做出预测,探究多情景土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明,PLSR-FLUS-MarKov模型能更准确刻画流域土地利用动态变化,模拟精度高达83.57%。流域土地利用变化集中区位于桂林市辖区、兴安县和阳朔县,多表现为耕地、林地向建设用地的转入以及耕地和林地间的相互转化。2030年,漓江流域生态系统服务价值均呈现下降趋势,自然发展情景、生态优先情景、旅游优先情景分别为218.07亿、225.61亿、222.91亿元,较2020年下降了9.02亿、1.48亿和4.18亿元,并呈现“东北高,西南低”的格局特征,实施生态优先策略后其下降速度放缓。林地是漓江流域生态系统服务价值的关键来源,占比超过80%,耕地和水域也贡献了一定比例的服务价值。生态优先情景下的生态系统服务价值最高,旅游优先情景次之,自然发展情景最低。研究结果可为桂林世界级旅游城市建设及区域生态系统健康管理提供科学指导。Ecosystem service value assessment can effectively identify regional habitat quality,opti-mize biodiversity conservation areas,calculate ecological compensation amounts and,to some extent,cultivate human awareness of the"value of natural resources",thereby promoting the construction of a regional ecological civilization.In this study,Lijiang River was selected as a case study,and we simulated the land use pattern and predicted the ecosystem service values of the Lijiang River basin in 2030 under three development scenarios that assumed differing priorities for ecological preserva-tion and tourism.We also analyzed the impact of land use change on ecosystem service value.The study was based on the data from remote sensing images for the Lijiang River basin in 2010 and 2020.Topographic and geomorphic features,climate,tourism,and related socio-economic factors were selected as drivers of land use change for model fitting,revision and validation.The revised PLSR-FLUS-MarKov model,and the equivalent factor method were then used to simulate land use changes and predict ecosystem service value in 2030 under three scenarios:natural development,eco-logical priority,tourism priority.Results show that:(1)The PLSR-FLUS-MarKov model accurately portrayed the dynamic changes of land use in the watershed,with a simulation accuracy of 83.57%.(2)Land-use change areas in the watershed was concentrated in the Guilin City district,Xing'an County and Yangshuo County,with arable and forest lands converted to construction land and inter-conversion between arable land and forest land.(3)The ecosystem service values in the watershed in 2030 trended downward.The ecosystem service value was the highest under the scenario of ecologi-cal priority,followed by tourism priority and natural development,with respective values of 22.561,22.291 and 21.807 billion yuan,decreases of 148,418 and 902 million yuan compared to 2020.The ecosystem service values were higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest,and the rate of de-cline decreased after

关 键 词：土地利用变化 生态系统服务价值 PLSR-FLUS-MarKov模型 多情景模拟 漓江流域 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]