基于电力安全供应的燃煤电厂发电能力评估  

Assessment of Generation Capacity of Coal-fired Power Plants Based on Security of Electricity Supply

作　　者：郑晓亮[1,2] 夏迎节 来文豪 张玉婷 董梦媛 ZHENG Xiaoliang;XIA Yingjie;LAI Wenhao;ZHANG Yuting;DONG Mengyuan(School of Public Safety and Emergency Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Hefei 230001,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院,安徽合肥230001 [2]合肥综合性国家科学中心能源研究院,安徽合肥230001 [3]安徽理工大学电气与信息工程学院,安徽淮南232001 [4]安徽理工大学安全科学与工程学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版)》2024年第6期839-847,共9页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金联合资助项目(2108085UD07)。

摘　　要：为了保障发电燃料的稳定供应,减少因突发状况引起供电短缺事故,提出了一种基于熵-CRITIC-独立性权系数法-灰色聚类评估的燃煤电厂发电能力评估。从新能源发电、用电需求、经济因素、交通运输、自然环境和煤炭供应6个维度构建评估指标体系,共包括24个子指标,通过组合权重结合灰色聚类评估,确定各指标的影响权重并对我国近5年燃煤电厂发电能力进行评估。结果表明:煤炭供应是影响燃煤电厂发电能力的最重要的因素;2019—2021年的燃煤电厂发电能力总体处于较弱的水平,2022年处于中等水平,2023年较强。研究结果可帮助企业应急管控煤炭的供应风险,为电力管理部门明确煤电供应的风险因素、改善电力供应的应急能力提供参考。In order to guarantee the stable supply of fuel for power generation and to reduce the shortage of power supply due to unexpected conditions,this paper proposed a method for assessing the power generation capacity of coal-fired power plants based on the entropy-CRITIC-independence weighting coefficient method and grey clustering assessment.This paper presented an evaluation index system constructed from six dimensions of new energy power generation,electricity demand,economic factors,transportation,natural environment and coal supply.The system included a total of 24 sub-indicators,and determined the influence weights of each indicator.Furthermore,the paper evaluated the power generation capacity level of China′s coal-fired power plants in the past five years by combining the combination of weights and grey clustering assessment.The results indicated that the supply of coal is the most significant factor influencing the capacity of coal-fired power plants to generate electricity.Furthermore,the capacity of coal-fired power plants has been relatively weak from 2019 to 2021,moderate in 2022,and stronger in 2023.The findings of the study can assist enterprises in the management of coal supply risk in an emergency,and provide a reference for the power management department to clarify the risk factors of coal and power supply and enhance the emergency capacity of power supply.

关 键 词：电力供应 熵 灰色聚类评估 煤炭供应 发电能力 

分 类 号：X934[环境科学与工程—安全科学]