中国工业机器人使用与老龄化——理论模型与实证分析  

The Use of Industrial Robots and Aging in China:Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：丁骋骋 万广华 余欢欢 Ding Chengcheng;Wan Guanghua;Yu Huanhuan(School of Finance,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China;Institute of World Economy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Business School,Hunan First Normal University,Changsha 410205,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学金融学院,310018 [2]复旦大学世界经济研究所,200433 [3]湖南第一师范学院商学院,410205

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2024年第10期24-46,共23页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：作为第四次技术革命的标志之一,工业机器人的使用不仅受到老龄化的影响,而且也可能冲击婚育行为,从而影响老龄化。结合国际机器人联合会数据库(IFR)、中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)及人口普查微观数据,本文旨在分析工业机器人对我国老龄化的影响,探讨相关机制,并挖掘政策含义。本文主要结果表明:(1)工业机器人的使用显著促进了老龄化趋势。2006—2019年样本期内,工业机器人应用的增长解释了老龄化变化的26.97%。(2)其作用机制在于使用工业机器人降低了结婚率和生育率,并提升了离婚率。(3)工业机器人是通过缩小性别经济差异,提高妻子(女性)的家庭地位和决策权,进而降低结婚率、生育率和提高离婚率,最终导致老龄化加剧。老龄化促使企业使用工业机器人,而工业机器人反过来又进一步促进老龄化。要想阻断或者缓解这个恶性循环,其关键在于提高生育率,而非限制工业机器人使用。The use of industrial robots not only affects economic development,but also has a significant impact on family marriage and childbearing behavior,thereby affecting the aging trend of a country.Based on the International Federation of Robotics database(IFR),China Household Tracking Survey(CFPS),and micro data from the population census,this article mainly discusses the impact,mechanism,and policy implications of industrial robots on China's aging.Research findings:(1)The use of industrial robots significantly exacerbates the aging trend.During the sample period from 2006 to 2019,the increase in the application of industrial robots explained 26.97%of the aging change.(2)The mechanism of action is that the use of industrial robots reduces the marriage rate and birth rate,and increases the divorce rate.(3)Furthermore,industrial robots improve the family status and decision-making power of wives(women)by narrowing the gender economic gap,thereby reducing the marriage rate and fertility rate,increasing the divorce rate,and eventually leading to an increase in aging.

关 键 词：工业机器人 性别经济差异 婚育行为 老龄化 

分 类 号：TP2[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]