地方政府债务与企业商业信用——基于供应链风险溢出的视角  

Local Government Debt and Firm Trade Credit:From the Perspective of Risk Spillover along Supply Chain

作　　者：刘金东 徐军伟 初虹 王洁怡 LIU Jin-dong;XU Jun-wei;CHU Hong;WANG Jie-yi(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Shandong University of Finance and Economics;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Capital University of Economics and Business;School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学财政税务学院 [2]首都经济贸易大学财政税务学院 [3]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第11期156-173,共18页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“财政金融协同视阈下金融风险的演化机制及治理研究”(批准号23CJY010)。

摘　　要：地方政府债务挤出企业信贷融资,可能促使企业沿供应链上下游寻求替代性的商业信用融资,进而影响供应链韧性和安全水平。本文采用2007—2018年地级市债务数据和上市公司微观数据,系统考察了地方政府债务对企业商业信用的影响。研究结果表明,地方政府债务扩张提高了企业对上游供应商的商业信用融资规模,该结论在多种稳健性检验之后依然成立。机制分析表明,地方政府债务挤占当地信贷资源,降低了企业信贷规模、提高了信贷成本,使得企业的商业信用需求增加,进而导致商业信用在供应链的溢出;从商业信用结构视角看,地方政府债务挤占信贷资源后,企业偏好于采用银行信贷资金替代性最强的应付账款而非应付票据。异质性分析显示,地方政府债务对商业信用的影响在市场议价能力更强的国有企业以及处于成熟期和波动期的企业中更为显著。进一步分析显示,地方政府债务加大企业商业信用挤占,提高了本地账款纠纷发生概率,降低了供应链的韧性和供应链的运转效率,形成了将风险从债务高地向债务洼地输出的地区间溢出效应。本文的研究对建立防范化解地方债务风险长效机制、建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制具有重要的启示意义。The rapid expansion of local government debt has created a crowding-out effect on local credit resources.Previous studies have mainly focused on the formal credit markets,neglecting the possibility that when the credit supply under formal institutions cannot meet financing needs,companies may supplement liquidity through informal forms of trade credit supply.In fact,the scale of trade credit financing under informal systems has become the main alternative financing method for bank credit.The phenomenon that local government debt first squeezes credit resources and then forces enterprises to squeeze upstream and downstream trade credit,as well as its risk spillover issues,deserves ourattention.This paper systematically examines the impact of local government debt on firm trade credit financing by embedding debt data of prefecture-level cities and micro-level data from listed companies from 2007 to 2018.It finds that the expansion of local government debt significantly increases the scale of trade credit financing from upstream suppliers by enterprises.Mechanism analysis shows that local government debt has squeezed local credit resources,leading to an increase in the demand of local companies for trade credit.The heterogeneity analysis shows that trade credit of state-owned enterprises(SOEs)and mature and volatile enterprises with stronger bargaining power is more significantly affected by the debt expansion.Further analysis shows that the increase in local government debt not only hurts the resilience and operational efficiency of the supply chain due to liquidity exploitation but also creates inter-regional spillover effects from high-debt areas to low-debt areas through supply chain channels.The logic verified in this paper that government credit exploits bank credit and thus drives enterprises to seek trade credit enriches research on the financial allocation effect of local government debt.It suggests that the expansion of local government debt not only exacerbates the financing constraints of local enterpris

关 键 词：地方政府债务 商业信用 供应链 风险溢出 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]