多期价格权重对农产品市场供给决策的影响和稳定性研究——基于二阶价格加权蛛网模型  

Impact and Stability Analysis of Multi-Period Price Weights on Agricultural Market Supply Decisions——Based on a second-order price-weighted cobweb model

作　　者：刘嘉浩 鞠荣华[1,2] LIU Jiahao;JU Ronghua

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]中国农业大学中国期货与金融衍生品研究中心

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2024年第9期133-144,共12页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目“中国农产品期货套期保值效果评价及优化研究”(21BJY211)

摘　　要：农产品价格稳定是国家粮食安全的基石。本文在传统蛛网模型只考虑一期供求关系调整基础上,用含参变量形式拓展讨论了二阶价格加权形式下蛛网模型的稳定性,即生产者通过考虑前两期价格情况进行生产决策,并以含参变量数值的变动探讨前两期价格对当期市场供给量的影响,得出能够使市场最终实现均衡稳定域更一般性结论:当对前一期价格赋予更大权重时,稳定域会先增大后减小,并在前一期价格权重为2/3时达到最大。本文使用国内玉米、西瓜和生猪三种农产品的价格和产量数据进行实证分析,证明二阶价格加权蛛网模型能够更好地解释国内农产品市场价格和供给量动态变化。本文研究结论可以解释在考虑前两期价格的农产品供给行为,也为周期性种植农作物的供给决策研究提供了经济学分析框架,对推动农业可持续发展和实现粮食安全具有重要意义。Agricultural price stability is the cornerstone of national food security.Building on the traditional cobweb model,which considers the adjustment of supply and demand in a single period,this paper expands the analysis to the stability of the cobweb model under a second-order price-weighted framework using parametric variables.Specifically,producers make production decisions by taking into account the price levels from the previous two periods.The paper explores how the prices of the previous two periods affect current market supply by examining changes in these parametric variables.The study concludes with a general finding:when greater weight is assigned to the price of the previous period,the stability domain initially increases,then decreases,reaching its maximum when the weight on the previous period’s price is set to2/3.Empirical analyses using price and production data for three domestic agricultural products—corn,watermelon,and hogs—demonstrate that the second-order price-weighted cobweb model better explains the dynamics of price and supply in the domestic agricultural market.The conclusions of this paper provide insights into agricultural supply behavior considering the prices of the preceding two periods and offer an economic analysis framework for studying supply decisions for perennial crops,which is of great significance for promoting sustainable agricultural development and ensuring food security.

关 键 词：蛛网模型 二阶差分方程 稳定域 农产品价格波动 价格弹性 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F326