2023/2024榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2024/2025榨季展望  

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2023/24 Crushing Season and Their Prospect for 2024/25 Crushing Season

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 张忠鹏 谢由之 LIU Xiaoxue;ZHANG Zhongpeng;XIE Youzhi(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048

出　　处：《中国糖料》2025年第1期93-104,共12页Sugar Crops of China

基　　金：国家糖料产业技术体系产业经济岗位科学家项目(CARS-1706)资助。

摘　　要：2023/2024榨季,巴西食糖生产和出口表现强劲,有效抵补了印度和泰国的供应减量,全球食糖供应过剩约500万吨,ICE原糖价格于2023年11月初创下28.14美分/磅高位后震荡回落至17.5~20.0美分/磅。国内因良种良法政策激励,以及气候适宜提振单产,产糖量恢复性增产到996.3万吨,同比增11.07%。2023年初销糖量同比大增,致使工业库存降至近年低位,累计产销率亦创近年纪录水平,而后低库存和高产销率由2024年初维持至9月份,成为整个榨季国内现货价格相对抗跌的主要支撑,基差亦整体维持在200元/吨高位。因经济复苏不及预期,抑制了含糖食品消费,涉糖行业营收普遍下降,8月和9月企业利润同比差于此前10个月的利润同比,涉糖企业通过增加糖浆预混粉等低成本替代品进口,对食糖市场形成一定挤占打压。展望2024/2025榨季,预计泰国、欧盟增产,巴西减产,幅度需持续关注含糖量和制糖比指标,印度持平可能较大,但受糖醇政策和出口政策影响仍有较大不确定,全球食糖供应过剩格局仍将持续,但过剩量将有所收窄。四季度至2025年第一季度供给宽松程度不及去年同期,若巴西产量不及预期,有可能进一步转为偏紧格局,为糖价走强提供动能。国内增产幅度约为9.4%,近期进口糖利润改善,7月和8月进口到港增加,新榨季开启,糖浆和预混粉进口数量的稳定替代,均将对国内糖价形成明显压制。此外,2024/2025榨季全球宏观经济、能源政策、强势美元和印度出口政策对食糖价格的影响明显加大。In 2023/2024 crushing season,Brazils sugar production and export volume was strong,effectively compensating for the supply reduction in India and Thailand,and the global sugar supply was oversupplied by about 5 million tons,and the ICE raw sugar price fell to 17.5 to 20.0 cents/Ib after hitting a high of 28.14 cents/pound in early November,2023.Due to the policy incentives of subsidies for the promotion of better varieties and technologies as well as the suitable climate to boost the yield,the sugar production recovered and increased to 9.963 million tons,an increase of 11.07%.The sugar sales volume increased significantly in early 2023,resulting in industrial inventories falling to the lowest level in recent years,and the cumulative production and sales rate also reached a record level in recent years,and then the low inventory and high production and sales rate were maintained from the beginning of 2024 to September.It has become the main support for the domestic spot price to fight against the decline in the whole season,and the basis has also remained at a high level of 200 yuan/ton.Due to the economic recovery is less than expected,which inhibits the consumption of sugary food,the revenue of sugar-related industries generally declined,and the profits of enterprises in August and September were worse than the profits of the previous 10 months,and sugar-related enterprises have formed a certain squeeze on the sugar market by increasing the import of low-cost substitutes such as syrup premixed powder.Prospect for 2024/2025 crushing season,it is expected that Thailand and the European Union will increase production,Brazil will reduce production,the extent of the need to continue to pay attention to the sugar content and sugar ratio indicators,India may be relatively large,but the impact of sugar alcohol policies and export policies is still relatively uncertain,the global sugar supply surplus pattern will continue,but the excess will be narrowed.From the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2025,the degree of

关 键 词：食糖 供需 价格 产量 市场 进口 能源政策 

分 类 号：TS24[轻工技术与工程—制糖工程]