中国居民退休准备与延迟退休影响的评估  

Evaluation of Retirement Preparation and Impact of Delayed Retirement in China

作　　者：巴曙松[1] 黄开怀 BA Shusong;HUANG Kaihuai(HSBC Business School,Peking University,Shenzhen 518000,China;School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200000,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学汇丰金融研究院,广东深圳518000 [2]复旦大学经济学院,上海200000

出　　处：《人口与经济》2025年第1期1-19,共19页Population & Economics

摘　　要：积极应对人口老龄化已成为我国的基本国策,而适时实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄政策,是我国积极应对人口老龄化的重要举措。讨论中国居民退休经济准备充分程度,定义居民耗尽所有资产的年龄为破产年龄,居民在死亡前耗尽全部资产的概率为破产概率,构建了一个能刻画中国居民破产年龄与破产概率的精算模型,对中国居民退休准备情况进行评估,并探讨投资收益率及房产的敏感性。最后在模型中引入延迟退休政策,以说明特定的社会个体的退休经济准备如何受到延迟退休影响,并分析了延迟退休影响的异质性。主要创新之处在于从新的视角定量研究退休经济准备,研究发现约1/3的个体退休经济准备充分,男性退休经济准备情况好于女性,并且进一步发现延迟退休年数较少时对男性积极效果更大,年数超过七年后对女性积极效果大。整体而言,补充了退休经济准备的相关研究,也为制定延迟退休政策提供参考。Actively coping with population aging has become fundamental national strategy in China and the gradual implementation of delayed retirement age policies is a key measure.This study explores the retirement economic preparedness of Chinese residents,defining the age at which residents exhaust all assets as the bankruptcy age,and the probability that residents exhaust all assets before death as the bankruptay probability.An actuarial model is constructed to describe the bankruptcy age and bankruptcy probability of Chinese residents,assessing their retirement preparedness and conducting a sensitivity analysis on investment returns and real estate.Introducing delayed retirement into the model reveals its impact on the economic preparedness of retirement of specific individuals,with an analysis of heterogeneity in this influence.The main innovation of this paper lies in the quantitative study of economic preparedness of retirement from a new perspective.The research finds that about one-third of individuals are economically well-prepared for retirement,with males generally exhibiting better preparedness than females.Additionally,the positive impact of delayed retirement is more pronounced for males with fewer delayed years,while females experience substantial benefits after seven years.This study contributes valuable insights to relevant literature of economic preparedness of retirement,informing the formulation of effective delayed retirement policies.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 退休准备 延迟退休 破产概率 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理] F241.34[社会学]