子女普高升学机会如何影响母亲多孩生育行为?——基于中考分流的制度背景  

How Do Chances of General Senior High School Affect Multiple Childbearing Behavior?:Based on the System Context of Senior High School Entrance Examination Streaming

作　　者：顾和军 彭聪聪[1] 张永梅 GU Hejun;PENG Congcong;ZHANG Yongmei(School of Business,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Institute of Common Prosperity Research,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Economics and Management,Huzhou University,Huzhou 313002,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学商学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学共同富裕研究院,江苏南京210044 [3]湖州师范学院经济管理学院,浙江湖州313000

出　　处：《人口与经济》2025年第1期47-60,共14页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘双减’政策下家庭教育成本变动与生育潜能释放效应研究”(22BRK036);江苏社会科学基金一般项目“‘房住不炒’下住房属性变动与家庭生育决策行为研究”(23SHB012)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告指出要“建立生育支持政策体系,降低生育、养育、教育成本”,然而现行的中考分流制度背景下普高升学机会不足却可能加重家庭教育焦虑、推高教育成本、导致育龄女性不愿或不敢多生。从理论视角分析子女普高升学机会与母亲多孩生育行为的影响关系及作用机制。基于CFPS2016、2018、2020三年的面板数据,使用OLS回归模型估计中考分流背景下,子女普高升学机会对母亲多孩生育行为的影响,为识别教育压力对多孩生育的影响提供了微观证据。实证结果表明,普高升学机会提高有利于多孩生育水平提升。异质性分析发现,在中部地区,普高升学机会提高对多孩生育水平提升有显著的正面影响;中低收入阶层、中低教育水平阶层、中部地区女性的再生育行为更容易受到普高升学机会的影响。机制分析表明,在中考分流背景下普高升学机会通过改变教育支出的方式作用于育龄女性多孩生育行为。研究结果为理解教育压力与生育之间的关系提供了新的观察视角,对于推进教育与生育领域联动改革、提高生育水平具有现实意义,为相关政策的制定与实施提供了参考。The report of the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party points out that it is necessary to“establish a system of policies to support childbearing and reduce the costs of childbearing,parenting and education”.However,the lack of opportunities for further education in general senior high schools in the current system context of the senior high school entrance examination streaming may aggravate families’educational anxiety,push up the cost of education,and cause women to be reluctant or afraid to have more children.The research are first to analyze the relationship between children’s opportunities for further education in general senior high schools and mothers’multiple childbearing behavior and the mechanism of their influence from a theoretical perspective.Based on three years of panel data from CFPS 2016,2018 and 2020,This paper uses an OLS regression model to estimate the impact of higher chances of general senior high schools on the level of multiple childbearing in the system context of the senior high school entrance examination streaming,which provides micro-evidence for identifying the impact of educational pressure on multiple childbearing.The empirical results of this paper show that higher chances of further education in general senior high schools are favorable to the level of multiple childbearing.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that in provinces with more opportunities for further education in general senior high schools and in the central region,higher opportunities for further education in general high schools have a significant positive impact on the increase in multiple childbearing levels;multiple childbearing behaviors of middle-and low-income classes,middle-and low-education classes,are more likely to be affected by the increase in opportunities for further education in general senior high schools.The mechanism analysis suggests that,in the system context of senior high school streaming,higher chances of further education in general senior high schools will increase the l

关 键 词：中考分流 普高升学机会 教育成本 多孩生育 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学] G40-052[文化科学—教育学原理]