“一体化威慑”战略视域下拜登政府台海政策探析  

On the Biden Administration's Taiwan Strait Policy from the Perspective of“Integrated Deterrence”Strategy

作　　者：张建[1] 董昱萱 Zhang Jina;Dong Yuxuan(Center for World Political Parties and Politics Research,Shanghai Institutes for International Studies;Shanghai Institutes for International Studies)

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院世界政党与政治研究中心 [2]上海国际问题研究院

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第4期60-74,共15页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“坚持和完善‘一国两制’制度体系研究”(23ZDA120)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：拜登政府上台后,提出了“一体化威慑”战略,并将其作为美国国防战略的核心。“一体化威慑”战略在台海地区的实施涵盖了多个维度,包括强化对台海周边的军事布局及台湾地区所谓的“自主防卫”能力,同时积极拉拢盟友,深化经贸、科技领域的合作,展开涉台认知战,推动台湾问题“国际化”等。尽管拜登政府在深化对华战略竞争的同时寻求规避直接冲突,但“一体化威慑”战略在台海地区的实施确实带来了一系列负面影响,包括中美战略博弈不断升级、支持和纵容了“台独”势力、台海地区军事对抗风险的增加以及在台湾问题上大国博弈色彩的加深等。然而,拜登政府在台海推行“一体化威慑”的战略时也面临了诸多挑战,包括台湾地区自身的战略缺陷、盟友的“貌合神离”以及台海局势的复杂性和不可控性等。对此,大陆应当综合施策,积极求变以应对台湾问题的复杂局面,并在国际舞台上争取更大的主动权。After coming into office,the Biden administration has put forward the"Integrated Deterrence"strategy and made it the core of the U.S.national defense strategy.Across the Taiwan Strait,the"Integrated Deterrence"strategy is implemented in several ways,including bolstering military deployment and"self-defense"capabilities.Meanwhile,the U.S.is actively wooing its allies,deepening cooperation in the economy,trade,science and technology,launching cognitive struggles related to the Taiwan region,and promoting the"internationalization"of the Taiwan question.Even while the Biden administration wants to strengthen its strategic competition with China while avoiding open confrontations,the implementation of the"Integrated Deterrence"strategy in the Taiwan region has still brought about a series of negative impacts,which includes the continuous escalation of the strategic rivalry between China and the U.S.,the support and connivance of"Taiwan Independence"separatist forces,the increased risk of regional military struggles,and the deepening of the great power competition on the Taiwan question.However,the Biden administration has encountered numerous challenges in implementing the"integrated deterrence"strategy in the Taiwan region,including theinherent strategic deficiencies in the region,the"discrepancy in unity"among allies,as well as the complexity and uncontrollability of the situation in the Taiwan region.In response,Chinese mainland should adopt a comprehensive approach,actively seek change to cope with the complex situation of the Taiwan question,and strive for greater initiative on the international stage.

关 键 词：“一体化威慑” 拜登政府 台海政策 台湾问题 “国际化” 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]