城市化背景下中国PM_(2.5)时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Evolution of PM_(2.5)Pollution in the Urbanizating Cities of China

作　　者：王桂林 WANG Guilin(Urban Development Research Center,Shanghai Urban Construction Vocational College,Shanghai 200438,China)

机构地区：[1]上海城建职业学院城市发展研究中心,上海200438

出　　处：《山地学报》2024年第6期880-894,共15页Mountain Research

基　　金：上海城建职业学院校级重点项目(cjky202541)。

摘　　要：快速城市化进程中,人类活动是城市PM_(2.5)污染的主要因素。分析城市化对PM_(2.5)污染的影响,掌握PM_(2.5)污染演变规律,对于控制PM_(2.5)污染,提升城市治理水平具有现实意义。然而,以往城市PM_(2.5)污染研究多依赖地面监测点PM_(2.5)数据,且未能有效排除PM_(2.5)中自然源(如扬尘、海盐等)对城市污染的独立影响,从而在一定程度上影响了研究结果的准确性和可靠性。本研究基于卫星遥感气溶胶垂直厚度、GEOS-Chem模拟值以及地面监测值,通过运用时空地理加权回归模型GTWR,反演了1998—2017年中国PM_(2.5)污染和人为排放PM_(2.5)(排除扬尘、海盐影响)的时空分布,并分析二者的演化关系。结果表明:(1)基于GTWR的PM_(2.5)模拟精度为87.94%,比GEOS-Chem模型模拟精度高7.80%。(2)中国PM_(2.5)污染空间分布呈倒“T”形态,纵横交界处华北平原污染最为严重;人为排放PM_(2.5)呈“胡焕庸线”分布格局,虽整体上升但具有阶段性波动趋势。(3)中国人口城市化水平与人为排放PM_(2.5)污染呈显著正相关(R=0.66)。低城市化(人口城市化率为0~40%)城市的PM_(2.5)污染处于最低水平;中城市化(40%~60%)的PM_(2.5)平均质量浓度为(27.49±8.95)μg·m^(-3),是低城市化的5.92倍;高城市化(60%~80%)的PM_(2.5)质量浓度均值为(34.40±7.71)μg·m^(-3),比中城市化城市高出25.14%,是低城市化的7.41倍;北京、上海、天津的人口城市化率最高,处于80%~100%,PM_(2.5)平均质量浓度为(61.60±10.15)μg·m^(-3),比高城市化城市高出79.07%,是中城市化城市的2.24倍,是低城市化城市的13.28倍。本研究结果可为改善城市空气质量、制定科学合理的污染防治策略提供相关依据。In the process of rapid urbanization,human activities are the primary contributors to urban PM_(2.5)pollution.Analyzing the impact of urbanization on PM_(2.5)pollution and mastering the evolution law of PM_(2.5)pollution are of practical significance for removing PM_(2.5)pollution and improving the level of urban governance.Previous studies on urban PM_(2.5)pollution depended on ground-based PM_(2.5)data collected at ground monitoring stations in cities,and the influence of natural sources of PM_(2.5)(such as fugitive dust and sea salt)on urban pollution were not effectively excluded,thereby affecting the accuracy and reliability of the research results to a certain extent.In this study,based on aerosol optical depth(AOD)from satellite remote sensing,Goddard Earth Observation System Chemical(GEOS-Chem)model simulations,and ground-based monitoring data,it employed a Geographically Time Weighted Regression(GTWR)model to retrieve the spatiotemporal distribution of PM_(2.5)pollution and anthropogenic PM_(2.5)emissions(excluding the influence of fugitive dust and sea salt)in China from 1998 to 2017 and analyzed the evolutionary relationship between the two.(1)The simulation accuracy of urban PM_(2.5)based on GTWR was 87.94%,which was 7.80%higher than that the simulation accuracy of GEOS-Chem model.(2)In China,the spatial pattern of PM_(2.5)pollution showed an inverted“T”shape,with the North China Plain at the intersection being the most polluted.Anthropogenic PM_(2.5)emissions followed the“Hu Huanyong line”distribution pattern,showing an overall increase and a periodic fluctuation trend.(3)There was a significant positive correlation(R=0.66)between the urbanization level of China's population and anthropogenic PM_(2.5)pollution.(4)Cities with low urbanization(population urbanization rate of 0-40%)had the lowest PM_(2.5)pollution levels.The average PM_(2.5)concentration in moderately urbanized cities was 27.49±8.95μg·m^(-3) which was 5.92 times that of low-urbanized cities.(5)The average PM_(2.5)concentratio

关 键 词：城市化 PM_(2.5)污染 MODIS GTWR 

分 类 号：X8[环境科学与工程—环境工程]