财务核算逻辑与监管约束下的银行股权自由现金流预测  

Prediction of Bank Free Cash Flow to Equity under Financial Accounting Logic and Regulatory Constraints

作　　者：刘春学[1] 陶明扬 徐冬冬 陈诗杰 Liu Chunxue;Tao Mingyang;Xu Dongdong;Chen Shijie(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221;Beijing Yachao Assets Appraisal Co.,Ltd.Kunming 650000)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学,云南昆明650221 [2]北京亚超资产评估有限公司,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《中国资产评估》2024年第12期68-80,F0003,共14页Appraisal Journal of China

摘　　要：随着市场经济的不断发展,金融企业在市场中的作用不断增强。但目前银行价值评估受多种因素影响,评估结果的准确性和可靠性待进一步提高。本文以A银行收购改建B银行评估项目为案例,结合银行财务核算思路厘清B银行财务报表的预测及配平过程,分析银行的监管指标与收益盈利预测融合过程。研究结果显示:根据银行权益额的计算过程,在一定的假设条件下股权自由现金流可以通过年度分红金额计算得到;与银行财务核算逻辑相匹配的方法流程可以更好地预测股权自由现金流;充分考虑监管指标的约束性并通过监管指标来核查验证整个预测过程,结果符合监管要求,可以保证各科目预测的合规性。With the continuous development of the market economy,financial enterprises are playing an increasingly significant role in the market.However,the bank valuation is affected by multiple factors,and the accuracy and reliability of the valuation results remain to be further improved at present.Taking the evaluation project of Bank A’s acquisition and reconstruction of Bank B as a case,this paper clarifies the prediction and balancing process of Bank B’s financial statements in combination with the consideration on bank financial accounting,and analyzes the integration process of the bank’s regulatory indicators and earnings forecast.The research results show that:According to the calculation process of the bank’s equity amount,the free cash flow to equity can be calculated through the annual dividend amount under certain assumptions;The methodological process that matches the logic of bank financial accounting can better predict the free cash flow to equity;Fully considering the constraints of regulatory indicators and verifying the entire prediction process through regulatory indicators,the results meet the regulatory requirements and can ensure the compliance of the prediction of each subject.

关 键 词：股权自由现金流 财务核算逻辑 监管约束 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]