Gail和Cuzick-Tyrer乳腺癌风险评估模型在永州地区的应用  

Application of Gail and Cuzick Tyrer breast cancer Risk Assessment Models in Yongzhou District

作　　者：蒋少尧 张思远 邓丹 卿伯华 段群欢 JIANG Shaoyao;ZHANG Siyuan;DENG Dan;QING Bohua;DUAN Qunhuan(Yongzhou City Central Hospital,Yongzhou,Hunan 425000)

机构地区：[1]湖南省永州市中心医院,湖南永州425000

出　　处：《智慧健康》2024年第32期10-13,共4页Smart Healthcare

基　　金：永州市科学技术局项目《Gail和Cuzick-Tyrer乳腺癌风险评估模型在永州地区的应用》(课题编号:2020-YZKJ-027)。

摘　　要：目的评估Gail和Cuzick-Tyrer乳腺癌风险评估模型在永州地区的应用价值。方法选取2017年1月—2020年1月就诊于永州市中心医院头颈肿瘤乳腺外科的患者567例为研究对象,将其中的300例设为病例组,另外267例设为对照组,两组均采用Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型、Cuzick-Tyrer乳腺癌风险评估模型进行乳腺癌风险评估,并实施问卷调查,分析危险因素,预测未来5年患者发生浸润性乳腺癌的风险。结果将该方法用于危险性评价,其敏感性分别为68.97%、60.78%、60%和69.66%。接受者操作特性曲线(ROC曲线)(0.606,0.758)的置信区间为0.68295%。采用Cuzick-Tyrer方法进行危险评价,其敏感性分别为80.72%、68.87%、67%和82.02%。ROC曲线下面积(0.787,0.896)为0.84295%。结论运用Gail模型对永州地区35岁及以上女性人群中侵袭性乳腺癌的发病风险进行预测时,其准确性并不理想。相比之下,采用Cuzick-Tyrer模型对同一人群进行侵袭性乳腺癌风险评估,则显示出较高的预测准确性。Objective To evaluate the application value of Gail and Cuzick Tyrer breast cancer risk assessment models in Yongzhou.Methods 567 patients who visited Yongzhou Central Hospital Head and Neck Tumor Breast Surgery Department from January 2017 to January 2020 were selected as the study subjects,300 of them were set as the case group,and the other 267 were set as the control group.Gail breast cancer risk assessment model and Cuzick Tyrer breast cancer risk assessment model were used for risk assessment of breast cancer in both groups,and questionnaire survey was conducted to analyze risk factors and predict the risk of invasive breast cancer in patients in the next five years.Results The sensitivity of this method for risk assessment was 68.97%,60.78%,60%,and 69.66%,respectively.The CI of ROC(0.606,0.758)is 0.68295%.The Cuzick Tyrer method was used for hazard assessment,with sensitivities of 80.72%,68.87%,67%,82.02%,and 82.02%,respectively.The lower product of the ROC curve(0.787,0.896)is 0.84295%.Conclusion The accuracy of Gail model in predicting the incidence of invasive breast cancer in women aged 35 years and over in Yongzhou is not high.Cuzick Tyrer model has a good prediction accuracy for invasive breast cancer risk assessment of women aged 35 years and above in Yongzhou.

关 键 词：Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型 Cuzick-Tyrer乳腺癌风险评估模型 乳腺癌 永州地区 预测价值 

分 类 号：R73[医药卫生—肿瘤]