基于MCS-DCF模型的智慧交通企业价值评估  

Intelligent Transportation Enterprise Value Assessment Based on MCS-DCF Model

作　　者：王秀杰[1] 刘炫 WANG Xiujie;LIU Xuan(Faculty of Mechanical Automotive Engineering,Guangxi University of Science and Technology,Liuzhou 545006,China;School of Economics and Management,Guangxi University of Science and Technology,Liuzhou 545006,China)

机构地区：[1]广西科技大学机械与汽车工程学院,广西柳州545006 [2]广西科技大学经济与管理学院,广西柳州545006

出　　处：《物流科技》2025年第2期95-101,共7页Logistics Sci Tech

基　　金：广西柳州工业和信息化局横向科研项目“柳州汽车产业发展规划”(07151003)研究成果之一;基于数字孪生技术的智能网联汽车测试方法研究(校科博24Z03)。

摘　　要：智慧交通行业具有综合性、系统性、数据驱动、服务智能化、安全性和环保性等特点,对相关企业进行价值评估可以为投资决策提供参考、为资产配置提供依据、为相关企业的并购重组提供指导、明确业务发展的方向等。在进行企业价值评估时,重要的是考虑当前实际情况,相应地调整使用的参数,选择恰当的评估方法,确保评估数据反映最新的市场动态和企业经营状况。文章以qf科技为例,使用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对qf科技企业的未来自由现金流加以预测,通过DCF模型和经过蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo Simulation)改进后的DCF模型对qf科技企业价值进行评估,最终结果显示:通过蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo Simulation)改进后的模型评估企业价值更加合理。The intelligent transportation industry is characterized by its comprehensiveness,systematic nature,data-driven approach,service intelligence,safety,and environmental friendliness.Conducting a valuation of related companies can provide references for investment decisions,serve as a basis for asset allocation,guide mergers and acquisitions,and clarify the direction of business development.It is crucial to consider the current reality when valuing a company,to adjust the parameters used accordingly,and to select the appropriate valuation method to ensure that the assessment data reflect the latest market trends and business performance.This paper takes qf Technology as an example,using the GM(1,1)model to forecast the company's future free cash flow.The enterprise value of qf Technology is assessed by using both the DCF model and an improved DCF model through Monte Carlo Simulation.The final results indicate that the enterprise value assessed by using the model improved by Monte Carlo Simulation is more reasonable.

关 键 词：DCF模型 B-S模型 智慧交通 企业价值 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]