考虑状态增量的自适应Wiener过程剩余寿命预测  

Remaining life prediction method based on adaptive wiener process by considering state increments

作　　者：李军星 李文琪 娄泰山 邱明[1] 王治华[4] 庞晓旭[1] 尹若军 LI Junxing;LI Wenqi;LOU Taishan;QIU Ming;WANG Zhihua;PANG Xiaoxu;YIN Ruojun(School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Henan University of Science and Technology,Luoyang 471003,China;Henan Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Manufacturing of Machinery and Equipment,Luoyang 471003,China;School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Zhengzhou University of Light Industry,Zhengzhou 450002,China;School of Aeronautical Science and Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]河南科技大学机电工程学院,河南洛阳471003 [2]机械装备先进制造河南省协同创新中心,河南洛阳471003 [3]郑州轻工业大学电气信息工程学院,河南郑州450002 [4]北京航空航天大学航空科学与工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《计算机集成制造系统》2025年第1期306-315,共10页Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52005159);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2019YFB2004403);河南省科技攻关资助项目(222102220061,202102210083);河南省高校青年骨干教师培养计划资助项目(2021GGJS048)。

摘　　要：针对传统自适应Wiener过程剩余寿命预测方法具有相邻两个时刻状态量相同隐含假设的问题,提出一种考虑状态增量的自适应Wiener过程剩余寿命预测方法。首先利用Wiener过程来表征产品性能退化过程,建立具有状态增量的Wiener过程状态空间方程,推导出退化模型参数在线更新解析式;为了充分开发利用同类产品的历史退化数据,提出基于期望最大化(EM)算法的信息融合方法,用以估计状态空间方程参数初始值;其次,利用首达时概念,得到产品剩余寿命的分布函数和点估计。最后,结合红外发光二极管IRLED和关节轴承工程实例对所提方法进行验证,与传统方法相比,所提方法的预测精度分别提高了约40.07%和101.23%。There is an implicit assumption that two adjacent moments have the same state quantity of the traditional adaptive Wiener process-based remaining life prediction method.For this problem,a novel remaining life prediction method was proposed by considering the state increment in the adaptive Wiener process.Wiener process was used to characterize the performance degradation process of product and the corresponding incrementing state space equation was established.Then the analytical formulas about the online update parameters in the degradation model were derived.To fully develop and utilize the historical degradation data of similar products,an information fusion method based on Expectation-Maximization(EM)algorithm was proposed to estimate the initial parameter values in the state space equation.Furthermore,the distribution function and the point estimation of the remaining life could be obtained based on the concept of the first hitting.Finally,two engineering examples involving IRLED and spherical plain bearing were used to verify the proposed method.The results showed that compared with the existing methods in the literature,the prediction accuracy of the proposed method was improved by about 40.07%and 101.23%,respectively.

关 键 词：剩余寿命预测 状态增量 自适应Wiener过程 期望最大化算法 性能退化 

分 类 号：TH165.3[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]