贷款损失拨备制度改革与前瞻性人力资本需求  

Loan Loss Provisioning Policy Reform and Forward-looking Human Capital Demand

作　　者：刘雪娇 赵钰颖 杜兴强[2] LIU Xue-jiao;ZHAO Yu-ying;DU Xing-qiang(Business School,University of International Business and Economics;School of Management,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际商学院 [2]厦门大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第12期155-173,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“会计师事务所人员管理一体化:度量、影响因素与经济后果”(批准号72472022);国家自然科学基金重点项目“环境治理目标下的公司财务、会计与审计行为研究”(批准号72332002);国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’沿线国中国企业审计治理研究”(批准号20&ZD111)。

摘　　要：贷款损失拨备是传递信贷风险信息的重要载体,其计提及时性和充分性决定了商业银行信息披露质量。新金融工具准则下的预期信用损失(Expected Credit Loss,ECL)模型作为贷款损失拨备的重大制度创新,通过前瞻性地将未来信用风险纳入拨备计提范围来解决信息不对称问题,其实施对商业银行人力资本配套建设及管理提出挑战。本文基于中国商业银行应用新金融工具准则的准自然实验,利用2015—2020年线上招聘数据,研究ECL模型实施对商业银行前瞻性人力资本需求的影响。结果表明,ECL模型实施能够促使商业银行在招聘中发布更多前瞻性职位。机制检验表明,ECL模型实施通过改进信息生产和风险管理,推动信息技术和风险合规部门的前瞻性人力资本需求增加。进一步地,该影响集中在学历与经验要求较高的职位,说明前瞻性特质与其他劳动力技能之间存在协同而非替代作用。异质性检验表明,银行实施前瞻性招聘的内部和外部动机、地方人才供给以及银行组织性质对本文结论发挥调节作用。经济后果检验显示,实施ECL模型的银行通过投入更多前瞻性人力资本增强了拨备计提及时性和信贷资产质量。本文基于人力资本配置视角拓宽了会计准则实施的经济后果,突出了前瞻性人才在会计准则有效实施过程中的作用,并对会计准则制定、银行人力资本治理和银行业监管提供了重要参考。Loan loss provisions carry and transmit credit risk information, and their recognition timeliness and adequacy determine the quality of information disclosure by commercial banks. As a major forward-looking reform of the banking sector's loan loss provisioning policy, the expected credit loss(ECL) model under the new financial instrument accounting standard includes future credit risks within the scope of loan loss provisioning to address the problem of information asymmetry, posing new challenges to the supporting construction and management of bank human capital. Do commercial banks actively allocate corresponding human capital for the implementation of the ECL model? How does the investment in relevant human capital affect the ECL model's role in mitigating information asymmetry?Answering these questions is of practical significance for the evaluation of the ECL model effectiveness, further improvement of relevant accounting standards, and an advance in financial regulatory governance work.Based on the quasi-natural experiment of Chinese commercial banks' staggered adoption of the new financial instrument accounting standard, this study uses online recruitment data from 2015 to 2020and finds that implementing the ECL model prompts banks to increase their forward-looking human capital demand. Mechanism tests show that the adoption of the ECL model increases forward-looking human capital demand for information technology and risk compliance departments by improving bank information production and risk management. Furthermore, the effect is concentrated in positions with higher educational and work experience requirements, indicating a synergistic rather than substitutive effect between individual forward-looking traits and other labor skills. Heterogeneity tests reveal that banks' internal and external motivations in responding to the ECL-driven challenges by means of forward-looking job postings, local talent supply, and organizational nature play a moderating role in the above effect. Consequence tests show th

关 键 词：商业银行 预期信用损失模型 前瞻性 人力资本 银行招聘 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]