数字技术何以赋能化肥源头减量?——基于浙江省“肥药两制”改革政策  

How Digital Technology Enable the Source Reduction of Fertilizer:Based on the Reform Policy of“Real-name and Quota System of Fertilizers and Pesticides”in Zhejiang,China

作　　者：卢泓钢 王益如 张俊飚 吴伟光[1,2] LU Honggang;WANG Yiru;ZHANG Junbiao;WU Weiguang

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300 [2]浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,杭州311300

出　　处：《世界农业》2025年第2期56-68,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：中国农业产业绿色转型发展的国际经验与国内实践(24YJRCO9ZD-3YB);浙江省社科规划项目“八八战略以来浙江省农业减污降碳协同增效的政策演进及其效果评估”(23LLXC025YB);浙江省教育厅一般科研项目“‘肥药两制’数字化改革政策对农业绿色发展的影响研究”(Y202353113);浙江农林大学科研发展基金人才启动项目“农业减污降碳协同效应的时空特征及其影响机制分析”(2022FR023)。

摘　　要：“肥药两制”改革政策是浙江省基于数字技术从农业生产源头推动农业生产理念和方式转型的首创政策,但具体的实施效果尚有待进一步验证。本文基于2015-2022年浙江省县域面板数据和准自然实验思路,运用多期双重差分模型估计“肥药两制”改革政策对化肥减量的影响效应,并运用模糊集定性比较分析方法探讨数字技术赋能化肥源头减量的组态路径。研究发现,“肥药两制”改革政策具有显著的化肥减量效应,而电子商务嵌入会弱化政策的化肥减量效果。组态结果表明,存在环境主导技术协同型、组织主导技术协同型、技术主导型3条高化肥减量的驱动路径。本文研究结论为充分认识数字技术赋能化肥源头减量的机制与效果提供了经验证据,也为进一步细化和推广数字治理政策至全国提供了借鉴与启示。The“Real-name and Quota System of Fertilizers and Pesticides”reform policy is the first policy in Zhejiang province to promote the transformation of agricultural production concepts and methods from the source of agricultural production based on digital technology,but the specific implementation effects have yet to be further verified.Based on the county panel data and quasi-natural experiments in Zhejiang province from 2015 to 2022,this paper uses a multi-period double-difference model to estimate the effect of the“Real-name and Quota System of Fertilizers and Pesticides”reform policy on the reduction of chemical fertilizer,and uses fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to explore the group path of the reduction of chemical fertilizer at the source empowered by digital technology.It is found that the“Real-name and Quota System of Fertilizers and Pesticides”reform policy has a significant fertilizer reduction effect,while the embedding of e-commerce weakens the fertilizer reduction effect of the policy.The grouping results show that there are three driving paths for high fertilizer reduction:environment-led technology synergy,organization-led technology synergy,and technology-led.The findings of this paper provide empirical evidence to fully understand the mechanism and effect of digital technology-enabled fertilizer source reduction,as well as lessons and insights for further refining and promoting digital governance policies to the whole country.

关 键 词：“肥药两制”改革政策 数字技术 化肥源头减量 组态效应 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] F426.72[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术] F203[经济管理—产业经济]