欧盟战略预见方法的创新及启示  

Innovations and inspirations of EU strategic foresight methods

作　　者：张永伟 周晓纪[1] 张璐皓 孙胜凯[1] Zhang Yongwei;Zhou Xiaoji;Zhang Luhao;Sun Shengkai(China Aerospace Academy of Systems Science and Engineering,Beijing 100048,China;School of Ocean,Yantai University,Yantai 264005,China)

机构地区：[1]中国航天系统科学与工程研究院,北京100048 [2]烟台大学海洋学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《今日科苑》2024年第11期38-47,共10页Modern Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“工程科技未来20年发展战略2023-2024总体组织与综合愿景深化研究”(项目编号:L2224056);国家自然科学基金项目“基于多源数据融合的未来情景生成方法及实证研究”(项目编号:L2324224);中国工程院咨询项目“中国工程科技未来20年发展战略研究”(项目编号:2021-XBZD-13)。

摘　　要：面对复杂多元的未来情形,战略预见已成为支撑决策的有力工具。本文通过深入研究欧盟战略预见研究成果,总结欧盟在战略预见方面的创新做法,详细阐述了欧盟以地平线扫描、大趋势中心、情景探索系统为骨干工具的战略预见方法体系和其在具体方法、流程的优化设计。在分析面向未来的战略研究方法发展趋势和欧盟战略预见方法创新实践基础上,进一步总结欧盟战略预见研究的发展特点和优势,以期为我国科技战略研究、政策研究工具方法创新等提供参考。In the face of complex and diversified future scenarios,strategic foresight has become a powerful tool to support decision-making.Through in-depth study of EU strategic foresight research results,this paper summarizes the EU's innovative practices in strategic foresight,and elaborates in detail on the strategic foresight methodology system of the EU,with horizon scan,megatrends hub,and scenario exploration system as its backbone tools,as well as its optimization design in specific methods and processes.Combined with the future-oriented development trend of strategic research methodology and the EU's innovative practice in strategic foresight methodology,furthermore,it provides a summary of the development characteristics and advantages of the EU's strategic foresight research methodology trends and directions,with a goal of providing inspiration for China's scientific and technological strategic research,policy research tools and methodological.

关 键 词：战略研究 未来研究 地平线扫描 大趋势中心 情景探索系统 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]