动态环境下城市公共安全风险模型的逆序现象及其改进研究  

Research on rank reversal phenomenon of urban public safety risk models in dynamic environments and its improvement

作　　者：李刻钢 杨保华 LI Kegang;YANG Baohua(Business School,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221000,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学商学院,江苏徐州221000

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2025年第1期16-22,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL235)。

摘　　要：为减少城市公共安全风险评估模型在面临动态环境时逆序的产生,提升其稳定性,基于三西格玛准则拓展风险评价指标信息,构建基于信息拓展的改进灰色关联度分析风险评估模型,并提出用于稳定性比较的评价指标;结合文献中的案例与数值仿真案例,运用改进灰色关联度分析、灰色关联度分析、TOPSIS、VIKOR和WSM等5种风险评估方法开展对比分析。研究结果表明:改进灰色关联度分析风险评估模型在城市公共安全风险的动态评价情景中具有高度的稳定性,其在斯皮尔曼相关系数、肯德尔等级相关系数、一致性指数和排序稳定性系数等风险评估模型的稳定性检验指标上都是最优的;TOPSIS和WSM风险评估模型的排序稳定性指数方面表现较差,VIKOR风险评估模型在4个模型检验指标上表现都较差。研究结果有助于推动改进灰色关联度分析在多元化评价体系中的深化与发展。To reduce the occurrence of rank reversal in the risk assessment models of urban public safety when facing dynamic environments,and enhance their stability,the information of risk assessment indexes was extended by Three Sigma criteria,then a risk assessment model of improved grey relational analysis based on the information extension was constructed,and the evaluation indexes for stability comparison were proposed.Combining the cases from literature with numerical simulation cases,a comparative analysis was conducted using five risk assessment methods:improved grey relational analysis,grey relational analysis,TOPSIS,VIKOR,and WSM.The results show that the risk assessment model of improved grey relational analysis has high stability in the dynamic evaluation scenario of urban public safety risk,and it is optimal in all the stability test indexes of risk assessment models such as Spearman correlation coefficient,Kendall rank correlation coefficient,consistency index and ranking stability coefficient.However,TOPSIS and WSM risk assessment models present poorer performance in the rank stability index,and VIKOR risk assessment model exhibits unsatisfactory performance across all four model validation indexes.The research results are helpful to promote the deepening and development of improved grey relational analysis in the diversified evaluation system.

关 键 词：灰色关联 风险评估 动态环境 逆序 城市公共安全 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]