面向房地产发展新模式的商品房预售制度改革研究--运行逻辑、内生矛盾与实践路径  

Research on the Reform of Advance Purchase System for Commodity Housing Towards the New Development Model for Real Estate:Operational Logic,Endogenous Contradictions,and Practical Pathways

作　　者：王先柱 吴义东 WANG Xian-zhu;WU Yi-dong(Chizhou University,Chizhou 247000,Anhui;School of Business,Anhui University of Technology,Ma’anshan 243032,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]池州学院,安徽池州247000 [2]安徽工业大学商学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《兰州大学学报(社会科学版)》2024年第5期137-148,共12页Journal of Lanzhou University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“货币政策、房企投融资决策与房地产行业转型发展”(72374003);国家自然科学基金青年项目“住房公积金制度扩面对农业转移人口市民化的影响及其优化研究”(72404002);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金“‘三道红线’调控下房地产企业债务风险化解机制、政策效果与优化路径研究”(23YJC790154)。

摘　　要：商品房预售制是住房领域重要的基础性制度。近年来,随着房地产市场发展形势不断变化,房地产企业依赖预售回款进行高周转的模式难以为继,商品房预售制的弊端再次成为社会各界的热议话题。从理论层面多维度探析商品房预售制的内生矛盾,指出预售制虽有助于缩小房地产企业的资金缺口,但也助推了房地产业“高负债、高杠杆、高周转”模式的形成。在房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势下,商品房预售制与市场供求关系的适配性明显降低。期房预售模式中存在着信息不对称,其中以房地产企业的机会主义和道德风险最为突出。此外,预售资金监管趋严具有金融加速器效应,通过降低预期现金流和资产抵押品价格强化了房地产企业的债务危机,进而对房地产市场平稳健康运行产生较大冲击。针对上述矛盾,应健全房地产企业多元化融资体系,渐进式改革商品房预售制度,完善预售制的违约预防机制、信息披露机制和风险化解机制,持续规范预售资金的监管体系,短期因城施策推进预售制改革,中长期逐步过渡为现房销售。The advance purchase system for commodity housing is an important foundational system in the real estate sector.In recent years,with continuous changes in the real estate market,real estate companies’marketing model that relies on pre-sale payments for high turnover has become difficult to sustain.The draw-backs of the system have become a heated topic again.The present paper explores theoretically the endoge-nous contradictions of the system from multiple dimensions.It points out that,though the system helps nar-row the funding gap for real estate companies,it has also contributed to the formation of a model of high debt,leverage,and turnover in the real estate sector.Given the major changes in the supply and demand rela-tion of the real estate market,the compatibility of the system with this relation has significantly decreased.The advance purchase model of off-plan housing involves information asymmetry,with the opportunism and moral hazard of real estate companies being particularly prominent.In addition,the tightening of supervision over pre-sale funds serves as a financial accelerator,which exacerbates the debt crisis of these companies by lowering cash flow expectations and the asset collateral prices,thereby exerting a significant impact on the stable and healthy operation of the market.To address the aforementioned contradictions,it is necessary to improve the diverse financing system for the companies,implement gradual reforms of the system,and en-hance mechanisms for preventing defaults,information disclosure,and risk defusing of the system.Further-more,it is essential to continuously normalize the supervision of pre-sale funds,adopt city-specific policies to promote the reform of the system in the short term,and gradually transit to available properties sale in the medium to long term.

关 键 词：商品房预售 房地产发展新模式 供求关系 房地产开发融资 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]