Timely Policy Exit:Reducing Over-Investment and Driving High-Quality Firm Performance  

作　　者：Dai Hongwei Zheng Lichen 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics(CUFE),Beijing,China

出　　处：《China Economist》2025年第1期55-76,共22页中国经济学人(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the Major Project of the Beijing Social Science Fund“Research on Constructing a New Development Pattern and the Coordinated Development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region”(20ZDA31).

摘　　要：Using data from the 11th to 14th Five-Year Plan periods(2006-2025),this study applies a Difference-in-Differences(DID)approach to assess the impact of industrial policy withdrawal.Industries that have faced policy withdrawal for over a decade are categorized as the treatment group,while consistently supported industries form the control group.The analysis examines how withdrawal affects firm total factor productivity(TFP)and investment behavior.The results show that policy withdrawal boosts firm TFP by reducing over-investment and improving the efficiency of R&D spending.This effect is particularly evident in industries with strong,competitive leading firms.Additionally,in regions with lower levels of marketization,timely policy withdrawal plays a key role in curbing over-investment.This study also highlights a dual effect of policy withdrawal:while it fosters corporate social responsibility,it may also encourage financial speculation.These findings suggest that the implementation of industrial policy should provide“timely assistance”over a limited timeframe rather than long-term support to well-established industries.As industries mature,policy support should be gradually reduced or phased out to avoid over-investment and enhance firm efficiency.

关 键 词：Industrial policy withdrawal total factor productivity(TFP) OVER-INVESTMENT shift from the real economy to financial speculation staggered difference-in-differences(DID) 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]